Friday, July 28, 2006

McKinney Going Down, Again?

Congresswomen Cynthia McKinney, who regained this congressional seat just two years, finds herself in the race for political life, again.

In a poll by Insider Advantage DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, who finished a close second to the Congresswoman in the July 18 primary, leads Ms. McKinney by a whopping 25 points Run-off elections generally are very low turnout affairs so the lead is soft, but larger nonetheless.

The run-off, our Key Black Race of the Moment, will be contested on August 8th and the winner will take on Catherine Davis.

Splitting the Vote and Losing the Seat!?

When Harold Ford, Jr. decided last year to run for the United States Senate everyone knew that the race to replace him would be a donnybrook. Open congressional seats are rare and rarer still in districts held by African Americans. So when 15 candidates, 11 of whom are African American, announced their intention to run it wasn't a shock.

What would be a shock is if one of the African American candidates didn't win the race. A poll done for Nikki Tinker by Brilliant Corner showed that that is a distinct possibility

The poll shows State Senator Steve Cohen leading Tinker and Joe Ford, Jr (Congressman Ford's nephew) by nine points and Julian Bolton by 20 points. If the poll is correct Tinker, Ford, Bolton, Ron Redwing and Ed Stanton are divvying up 48% of the potential vote.

Senator Cohen is clearly benefiting from the split among African Americans candidates and stands, according to the poll, as possibly the first white congressman from Tennessee's ninth congressional district in nearly 30 years.

The district encompasses the city of Memphis and is 60% African American. The primary is slated for Thursday August 3rd. The winner of the Democrat primary will take on the victor of the Republican contest which includes Derrick Bennett.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

MI - Butler Slipping in Primary

A new poll done in the Michigan Senate Republican primary shows Rev. Keith Butler slipping further behind sheriff Mike Bouchard in their hotly contested race.

While the deficit is only seven points the same Strategic Vision Poll had Butler down only five points last month so it seems the Butler machine is heading in the wrong direction with the primary only 12 days away.

But winning the primary may be a case of be careful what you hope for, since the same Strategic Vision survey has both Bouchard and Butler being beaten badly by the incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow. Sheriff Bouchard has the best numbers against Stabenow losing by 16 points, while Butler, the former Detroit Councilman comes up 20 points short.

The primary is August 8th.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

The Good, The Bad, The...Most Recent Polls

Another batch of polls have been released over the last few days and campaigns are poring over them to determine the life or death of their candidacy at this moment. The races that interest us are below:

Tennessee Senate -- Harold Ford, Jr. continues to hang tough but as the Republican primary approaches (August 3rd) it increasingly looks like Congressman Ford will face Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Ford has consistently run behind Mayor Corker, but it's a manageable distance that can be made up

Ohio Governor -- While Congressman Ford is within striking distance in Tennessee, Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is finding tough sledding in his gubernatorial bid. After an impressive primary win in May, Blackwell has yet to gain traction in the General Election race with Congressman Ted Strickland. Recent polls,, show the former State Treasurer trailing by double digits with a damaging party "reticence level" of nearly 40%.

Pennsylvania Governor -- Former Pittsburgh Steeler great Lynn Swann is also facing GOP push back in his Governor's race in Pennsylvania. Recent surveys in Swann's race against incumbent Ed Rendell show the Hall of Fame receiver trailing by low double digits,, but receiving only 58% of Republican support. A reticence level of 42%.

Stay Tuned For A Bigger and Better and Black Races-- Coming Soon...

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Another Poll Affirms Patrick's Lead

Just a day after receiving good news about his surging campaign from a Rasmussen Reports Poll, Democrat candidate for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick received more good news when the State House News Poll conducted by KRC/Communications Research show Patrick leading the primary election by 13 points and the general contest by eleven points

Patrick, the former Assistant United States Attorney General for Civil Rights, has held the lead since late spring in most polls but now seems to be increase his lead. However, the most telling point in this survey and the Rasmussen one released recently show Patrick beating presumptive GOP nominee Lt. Governor Kerry Healey by a larger margin than Patrick's opponents.

The State House poll also shows a 14 point increase in support for Patrick and a 24 point decrease for Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas Reilly who was the favorite when the race began in earnest last fall.

The Democrat primary will be held September 19th.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Good News and Bad News

A pair of polls recently released by Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA gave good news to one candidate running for governor and bad news to one campaigning for the United States Senate.

The good news was bestowed upon Deval Patrick who continues to run a competitive race for governor of Massachusetts. In a survey released by Rasmussen Reports on June 27th,, showed that Mr. Patrick lead a potential general election match up with current Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, the presumptive GOP nominee, by 20 points.

Beyond on that double digit lead the former Assistant US Attorney General for Civil Rights owned the biggest lead against Ms. Healey when she is matched up against Mr. Patrick primary opponents by a couple of points.

The Rasmussen Reports Poll also shows Deval Patrick with a higher favorable rating than any of other major candidates for governor with 54% saying they have a favorable view of him.

The primary in Massachusetts is slated for September 19th.

While Deval Patrick is riding high poll numbers, Keith Butler a republican candidate for the US Senate in Michigan continues to receive low numbers.

More bad news poured in yesterday as a Survey USA poll showed the former Detroit City Councilman trailing Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard by 26 percentage points

Rev. Butler, the pastor of a mega-church in the Detroit area, must now be worried as the Michigan primary approaches on August 8th and his numbers seem to have stalled or decreased during the summer months. While Mr. Butler never crested 37% in any of the polls we've followed Sheriff Bouchard never topped 50%, until now.

With only 4 weeks until the primary the Butler campaign has a tremendous hill to climb if Rev. Butler is to be the first African American elected to the United States Senate from Michigan.

Saturday, July 01, 2006

New Polls

Pennsylvania Governor --,
Swann in a deep hole;

Massachusetts Governor --,
Patrick continues to lead the way;

Maryland Lt. Governor --,
Brown riding a hot candidate.