Friday, July 28, 2006

Splitting the Vote and Losing the Seat!?

When Harold Ford, Jr. decided last year to run for the United States Senate everyone knew that the race to replace him would be a donnybrook. Open congressional seats are rare and rarer still in districts held by African Americans. So when 15 candidates, 11 of whom are African American, announced their intention to run it wasn't a shock.

What would be a shock is if one of the African American candidates didn't win the race. A poll done for Nikki Tinker by Brilliant Corner showed that that is a distinct possibility

The poll shows State Senator Steve Cohen leading Tinker and Joe Ford, Jr (Congressman Ford's nephew) by nine points and Julian Bolton by 20 points. If the poll is correct Tinker, Ford, Bolton, Ron Redwing and Ed Stanton are divvying up 48% of the potential vote.

Senator Cohen is clearly benefiting from the split among African Americans candidates and stands, according to the poll, as possibly the first white congressman from Tennessee's ninth congressional district in nearly 30 years.

The district encompasses the city of Memphis and is 60% African American. The primary is slated for Thursday August 3rd. The winner of the Democrat primary will take on the victor of the Republican contest which includes Derrick Bennett.


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