Wednesday, March 15, 2006

PA - Casey, Jr. Ahead; Rendell Should be Worried

In Pennsylvania, it looks like Bob Casey, Jr. (D) will be taking over current Sen. Rick Santorum's (R) job. Casey blasts Santorum 52% to 38%.

Rendell and Swann are now even at 45%.

MI - Keith Butler Has No Edge

Recent results from a Strategic Vision poll: Michigan U.S. Senate Black GOP candidate Keith Butler is behind both primary contender Mike Bouchard (R) and incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). Sen. Debbie Stabenow beats Butler 51% to 28%. Bouchard leads Butler 34% to 23%.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

TN - Not Looking Good for Ford, Jr.

If Memphis Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) (looking rather tired and worn last night on CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight) not careful, we may have to rescind our prediction for 2006. Up against potential Republican rivals, Ford doesn't fare well in November. Attached is the latest Rasmussen Poll, which the Black political establishment may question based on exactly who and where in TN they polled:

Of the Republican candidates, Representative Ed Bryant fares best against Ford, leading 45% to 36%. In January, the Rasmussen Reports Tennessee election poll showed Bryant leading 42% to 40%.

Representative Van Hilleary leads Ford 43% to 35%. Support for Hilleary is unchanged since January, but Ford was then at 37%.

Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker leads Ford 39% to 35%. Support for both Corker and Ford has declined since January. With both men below 40% and a quarter of the voters undecided, it's hard to say either candidate is ahead in this match-up.

Respondents unaffiliated with either major party favor the Republican candidates by roughly two-to-one margins. But moderates prefer Ford over the Republicans by about the same large margins.

Ford is viewed favorably by 47%, about the same as shown by our last poll. Bryant is viewed favorably by 44%, a slight decline. Corker is viewed favorably by 38%, a six-point decline. The number of voters who view Hilleary favorably is unchanged at 51%.

Ford enjoys the second-highest favorable rating of the four candidates in our poll. But he also has the highest unfavorable rating.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

New Orleans - The Race to Watch

The Mayor's race in New Orleans is definitely the battle to watch. It will end up not only defining the fate of current Mayor Ray Nagin (D) or the hurricane battered Big Easy, but it will be a major test of modern Black political muscle: could the highly displaced African American electorate of New Orleans pull it together and make it to the polls in a show of polling force? And, how important is New Orleans to the rest of the national African American political establishment and mobilization apparatus?

CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll reports:

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Tuesday indicates that 54 percent of the city's residents appreciate Nagin's hurricane-response efforts, but only 19 percent said they definitely would vote for him.

The telephone poll was conducted February 18-26 among 804 current city residents, 399 of them white and 311 of them black. The sampling error for general questions is plus or minus 4 percent, while results broken down by race have a sampling error of 6 percent. (
Interactive: Poll questions)

Saturday, March 04, 2006

PA - Rendell & Swann Too Close to Call ...

Reports the Allentown Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll on March 4th:

Rendell holds a 46 percent to 43 percent edge over Swann, a political newcomer, the statewide survey of 668 voters shows. Conducted Feb. 25 through Thursday, its results include voters who are solidly committed or just leaning toward one candidate or another. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

It's a statewide poll, but - as we've asked before - who and where in PA are you polling?

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

PA - F&M Poll Shows Rendell With Only Slight Edge

F&M Center for Politics & Public Affairs Poll shows Rendell 45%, Swann 42%.