Saturday, February 25, 2006

CQ's Take on Key Black Political Races

Allright: so when you look at Congressional Quarterly's 2006 Prediction map, you get a feeling there's not much hope for most of the more critical statewide Senate & Gubernatorial races involving African American candidates:

According to the CQ Predictions:

- Maryland leans Democrat. Therefore, that's minus 1 Black Senator next year. Due to Steele's inability to balance his lip and shake White conservatives controlling his platform, we're beginning to think CQ is right;
- Tennessee, we were surprised to find, is seen as leaning Republican. We really feel this is Ford's race to lose.
- Michigan leans Democrat. This doesn't surprise us since Michigan has much more important stuff to worry about than Keith Butler's mission to "Reviv[e] the American Spirit."

- Massachussets is seen as safe Democrat, which may bode very well for political newcomer Deval Patrick. We admit failing to pay serious attention to this race until recently, when Patrick's primary opponent began to slip miserably.
- Ohio shows as "no clear favorite," which may surprise some conventional political thinkers who suppose Kenneth Blackwell will win
- Pennsylvania leans Democrat. This will be a tight one, though, particularly since the incumbent, Gov. Rendell, doesn't resonate with voters in the Western side of the state like he does in the East. Swann, however, is looking like Steele in Maryland: unable to loosen the grip of White conservatives in the state.


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