The Black Races

IA - Clinton Not Laying Iowa Groundwork

2006-11-30T13:55:00.000-05:00

Interesting news out of Iowa, which could impact Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) decision on running for President in '08:

On Fox News last night, the chairman of Iowa's Democratic party said that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is not laying the adequate groundwork for a presidenial campaign in the first caucus state and that many are starting to speculate she may not run if Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) enters the race.

Said Iowa Democratic Chair Rob Tully: "She's been quiet and, you know, there's a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama.
Some people just wanted to touch him."

One other possible reason: According to the Quad City Times, former Democratic state party chairman Dave Nagle said he is concerned candidates might eventually choose not to come to Iowa with Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) in the race.

IL - Rep. Bobby Rush (D) Bucking Black Political Establishment in Chicago ...

2006-11-30T13:25:00.000-05:00

To the chagrin and outrage of Black mayoral candidates in Chicago (who are now like crabs in a barrel since Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) pulled out of the race, Congressman Bobby Rush (D) - fresh out of personal financial ruin - gives the current Mayor big-ups for a job some don't think was well done. Fran Spielman writes in the Chicago Sun Times:

In 1999, U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush campaigned for mayor on a promise to end "one of the most corrupt administrations" in Chicago history.

He accused Mayor Daley of making cosmetic changes while allowing major problems to fester and creating a "police culture that permits harassments, cover-ups and false arrests" of young black men.

What a difference seven years can make.

On Wednesday, Rush called Daley a "great mayor" who's done a "fantastic job" and "deserves another term." The South Side congressman said Daley has changed -- and Chicago has "improved substantially" -- in the seven years since Daley clobbered him, winning 72 percent of the vote.

IA - Getting Closer to a Black Presidency ...

2006-11-27T10:12:00.000-05:00

Des Moines Register reports:

Democrat Barack Obama has sought the advice of top campaign workers in Iowa and has established a seedling support network in this state as he prepares to decide whether to seek the 2008 presidential nomination.The first-term Illinois senator has surrounded himself with advisers rich in experience in Iowa, the leadoff caucus state.Obama has vaulted to the top tier among prospective candidates for the Democratic Party's nomination, even as the new star in the party says he has not made up his mind about running.

Interesting to note here that the first, most serious Black presidential contender in some time is focused on a primary state that many Democrats lambasted as not reflecting the diversity of the national electorate (a conclusion we agree with). Still, if Obama ranks well in a state as lily-White as Iowa, he should expect warm receptions in other primary states with predominantly White populations like New Hampshire.

TN - An Interesting Angle on Ford's Demise ...

2006-11-09T14:53:00.000-05:00

Kevin Rennie, Hartford Courant columnist, offers a somewhat cogent perspective on Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.'s failed Senate bid in TN:

This election brought one overlooked blessing. There will probably be less public flaunting of private religious beliefs in campaigns. The voters in one state issued a firm rebuke to that. That’s one way to interpret the defeat of Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee. Good Lord, a political commercial filmed in church. Democrats must have sent silence prayers into the ether for relief from that stunt. The voters of Tennessee answered them. Please, let the curse of blunt displays of piety in politics initiated by Jimmy Carter thirty years ago, come to an end. If Jesus had cared that much about politics he would have delivered the Sermon on the Mount in Rome.

Chicago - Jackson, Jr. Pulling Out of Mayoral Contention

2006-11-09T12:29:00.000-05:00

Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr (D-IL) won't be running for Mayor of Chicago in 2007. His spokesman claims the change in the Hill's political climate influenced that decision as Jackson, Jr. may be mulling future leadership positions in the House. Observes the Chicago Tribune:

Jackson, who scheduled a news conference for Thursday, declined to confirm his decision when reached by telephone."I don't want to scoop myself. Let me wait for [Thursday]," Jackson said.Vincent Fry, a Jackson aide, said the Democratic takeover of the U.S. House added a new element for Jackson to consider as he ponders a mayoral run."The congressman has been out of power his entire career," Fry said, but the changed political landscape in Washington "is definitely something to add to the consideration of whether or not he runs for mayor."

MD - CNN Projects Steele Losing

2006-11-07T21:36:00.000-05:00

With only 1% of precincts reporting in MD, CNN projects Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) losing this bid for the open Senate seat. Right now at 9:30pm ET Steele holds 55% to Cardin's 43%. Washington Post & Baltimore Sun have not issued projections, yet, so we'll hold on that one until its done.

OH - Blackpolicy.org Called It ... 11 months ago

2006-11-07T20:34:00.000-05:00

We're not rubbing it in, but the Blackpolicy.org Editorial Staff is looking golden on the OH Gubernatorial race - which we called 11 months ago

Congressman Ted Strickland (D) beating Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell (R) handily 66% to 31%. We can now confidently say that 2004 was the beginning of the end for Blackwell.

Battle for the Hill - CBC Watch ...

2006-11-07T20:00:00.000-05:00

Interesting piece in The Hill about what'll happen if Dems re-take control of the House. That should mean some serious power for African Americans in Congress. But, that could be the next battle royale if the Democratic leadership snubs Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) for the House Majority Whip spot. Here's Jonathan Kaplan writing:

In the House, both parties have gerrymandered districts to protect incumbents. Few districts with sizable black populations are competitive. The only competitive House race where black voters could determine the outcome is in Rep. John Barrow's (D-Ga.), district, which is 38 percent black.

In three competitive districts represented by Republican Reps. Thelma Drake (Va.), Anne Northup (Ky.) and Steve Chabot (Ohio), black voters make up 27, 19 and 21 percent of the population respectively.

CA - Watching Aimee Allison (G) ...

2006-11-06T23:09:00.000-05:00

We've been watching Aimee Allison's (G) tough fight in Oaktown. Here's the latest:

Big buzz in Oakland over the battle royal between incumbent City Councilwoman Pat Kernighan and challenger Aimee Allison -- with a reluctant Mayor-elect Ron Dellums right in the middle of it.

It's no secret that many of Democrat Dellums' troops are backing Green Party member Allison, and that her vote could help swing his agenda if she gets elected.

But Dellums has made a point of not taking sides in the race, and was none too happy when Allison's camp slapped his picture on a mailer without his approval.

MD - Black Democrats Feeling Unfulfilled by State Party Leadership

2006-11-06T09:35:00.000-05:00

Old, but interesting news on Black Democrats - particularly in Prince George's County - being fed up with the White-dominated state party. These cats are ready for, and deserve to be at the next level. Diversity means much more than colored faces at the polls and the victory parties:

Before the meal was over, a seed had been planted that three weeks later would sprout into one of this election year's most controversial moves: crossing party lines to endorse Republican Michael S. Steele for U.S. Senate.

According to four participants, the move was aimed at driving home a point: Don't take the county leadership and its majority of black voters for granted.

"This is a position we took to effect change -- change that would be beneficial to the citizens of Prince George's County -- and also to allow us to be part of the decision-making process of the Democratic Party," said County Council member Samuel H. Dean (D-Mitchellville), one of the leaders involved. "This was less about Michael Steele and more about the Democratic Party taking us for granted."

MD - Ugly Words from the Washington Post

2006-11-05T09:55:00.000-05:00

A recent editorial from The Washington Post that endorses MD Democratic nominee Rep. Ben Cardin strikes an unusually ugly tone by focusing 379 out of that endorsement's 394 words on GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Michael Steele's flaws as a potential Senate legislator. Something really nasty - we don't know - must have happened during Steele's meeting with The Post that led to this loaded piece:

Despite his efforts to construct an image as an independent-minded newcomer, there is nothing in Mr. Steele's past -- no achievement, no record, no evidence and certainly no command of the issues -- to support it. Pressed on energy or the environment, health care or North Korea, he tells reporters that he would get "all the players in the room." That sounds fine but means nothing; he's running to be a senator, not a meetings coordinator. He proposes a list of big-ticket spending programs but offers no convincing idea about how they might be paid for. He knocks special-interest politics but is flush with campaign cash thanks to a team of GOP lobbyists.

What's unusual is that this official Post endorsement of Cardin says nothing about Cardin until the very last sentence. Hence, it first gives the impression that Steele is actually dominating this race despite the best efforts of the Democratic opposition. Secondly, the unusually terse tone in this anti-endorsement (something rare in our long time as avid readers of The Post) comes off as rather suspicious since there is nothing in it that mentions why The Post endorses Cardin other than its apparent hatred for Steele.

Certainly, many - particularly African Americans in Prince George's County, Maryland - will ask if The Post employed a double standard here. The question will be posed: "If Steele were White, would this editorial have been as ugly?" If that's the case, this may actually work against Cardin in the final stretch of a brutal campaign.

PA - Swann Getting His Black On ...

2006-11-02T22:11:00.000-05:00

Here's PA Republican Gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann getting his Black on a dollar short and months late:

For the first time, Lynn Swann has interjected the issue of race in his quest to unseat Gov. Rendell and become Pennsylvania's first black governor.
In ads on three black radio stations in Philadelphia, the Republican accuses Rendell of distorting his record, and contends that it isn't the first time the governor has attacked an African American politician.

"For too long now," the ad says, "career politicians like Ed Rendell have taken us for granted. Remember how Ed Rendell attacked Mayor Goode by calling him a liar, incompetent, deceitful?... Now he's doing the same thing to another African American, Lynn Swann. It's time to stand up."

Still, Swann failed to accept an invitation by the Philadelphia Tribune's editorial board to discuss his platform. Too many White Republican operatives running his campaign? What's funny is that ultra-conservative Republican Sen. Rick Santorum (PA), currently in a fight for his political life with former PA Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. (D), actually showed up for his Tribune invitation and left a respectful impression.

More from the Inquirer:

Many Republicans had hoped Swann could woo African American voters away from Rendell, particularly in the governor's home base of Philadelphia. But in a Temple University/Philadelphia Inquirer Poll last month, 92 percent of black voters said they would vote for Rendell, with 6 percent supporting Swann.

Nuff said.

MD - Steele on Defensive, Cardin Looking Tired

2006-10-30T20:10:00.000-05:00

In the highly anticipated rhetorical head butt between MD Congressman and Democratic Senate candidate Ben Cardin and Lt. Gov. and Republican nominee Michael Steele, talking point sparks flew.

Russert put real heat on Steele - the "Are you running as a proud Bush Republican?" question seemed just a smudge over the top; we don't recall any White Republican getting that kind of questioning ... so, we examine it with a bit of caution. But, then again, Steele dug that hole for himself by struggling to somehow balance his Republicanism with his candidacy in a heavily Democratic state. In addition, he's taking too much GOP money and has too many GOP operatives managing too many elements of his platform. Steele is obviously on the defensive. But, he seems cool and collected under the pressure.

Cardin is getting lucky according to the latest polls. Steele's cool pose and telegenic savvy isn't enough to distance the man from The Man. The Steele/Bush association is the only thing working in Cardin's favor. Other than that, Cardin can only expect the President's unpopularity to work in his ultimate favor since he's looking rather tired and grey in this Meet the Press special.

MI - Amos Williams to Debate Mike Cox

2006-10-27T10:56:00.000-04:00

Amos Williams, Democratic Candidate for Attorney General will face off with Mike Cox on Friday morning on Off the Record with Tim Skubick. The program will be taped at 8 a.m. and will be available on the internet at 10:35 a.m.

MS - Fleming Hoping for a Win

2006-10-27T09:42:00.000-04:00

Note to blogging self: man, we wish Mississippi did some polling. It'd be really nice to see how State Rep. Erik Fleming (D-Clinton) is faring in what is described as a long-shot bid against incumbent Sen. Trent Lott (R):

Fleming faces tough competition running against long time Senator Trent Lott who is entering his 33rd year representing Mississippi in Congress. Fleming won the Democratic nomination to face Lott by beating Bill Bowlin in a run-off election getting 65 percent of the vote. The state representative said he thought long and hard about running for the U.S. Senate and was actually urged to run. “A lot of people said, ‘Well, there’s no chance. Nobody’s going to give you the time of day.’ It’s just amazing how things work,” he said.

Carson Back In Front In Indiana But Dickerson Making It A Race

2006-10-25T00:21:00.000-04:00

blackpolicy.org was surprised to see a poll released over the weekend that showed Republican nominee Eric Dickerson with a three point lead over incumbent Julia Carson.

What was even more surprising was Dickerson was down 20 points just a month ago. However, a new poll released yesterday has Carson back on top but by only 5 points with only 9% percent undecided.

Carson, who has been dogged by ill health recently, has won previous reelections comfortably but auto dealer Dickerson has run an aggressive campaign and turned the race into one to watch.

Eric Dickerson is scheduled to appear on Ascent Perspectives tomorrow Wednesday October 25th.

Race In Indiana's 7th

2006-10-23T12:38:00.000-04:00

There is plenty of talk about Democrats winning back control of Congress in two weeks. Dems need 16 seats to win control and polls show they may be on the brink of doing so.

However, what happens if the Democrats win 16 seats, but lose one no one thought would be in play. This could be the case in Indiana's 7th congressional district.

The seat is currently held by 5 term incumbent Julia Carson. The Democrat from Indianapolis was expect to cruise to reelection, but a recent poll shows her down three points with 13% undecided. The number differ quite a bit from survey 6 weeks ago that had her up 22 points over GOP nominee Eric Dickerson with only 10% unsure.

A recent debate between the two generated little in terms of political theater, Dickerson said he was running because "a congressional seat is a terrible thing to waste" and Carson implied she was better than ever, but did viewers she something to make them reconsider Dickerson?

It will be interesting to see how the national parties engage in this race that now seems competitive.

VA - Allen, Webb now Lifetime NAACP Members

2006-10-21T09:49:00.000-04:00

Political race drama continues to unfold in the Virginia Senate race, causing Confederate ghosts to turn in their graves. We find Democratic challenger James Webb shifting political allegiances and shifting (flip-flop??) views on affirmative action somewhat curious - at least with Sen. George Allen, you've got an idea of where he's coming from on that topic even if you don't agree with him:

Allen said he is opposed to racial profiling but declined to support affirmative action, favoring "affirmative recruitment" instead. He earned nods from the crowd when he spoke about the need for increased support for historically black colleges and the importance of the Voting Rights Act.

He said that he would do a better job of keeping taxes low and that the United Nations should take the lead in dealing with the human rights issues in Darfur. On Iraq, he said, progress has been too slow.

"I've enjoyed the give-and-take here," he told the crowd of about 200. "Do we agree on every issue? No. Am I perfect? No. I respectfully ask for your support and your consideration. I look forward to joining hands with you all."

Moments later, he joined the group's president and a phalanx of television cameras to fill out the membership application and write a personal check for $750 to become the group's latest lifetime member.

Webb, who followed Allen for his hour of questions, sparked immediate, raucous applause by opening his talk with a promise: "I'm going to bite the bear before the bear bites me," he said. "I'm announcing I'm going to sign up for a lifetime membership in the NAACP."

Webb received a warmer reception than Allen, despite concern in the black community about his position on affirmative action.

Black Republican Ad & Debate over MLK Political Affiliation

2006-10-19T14:15:00.000-04:00

We suspect that the controversy over this ad - airing heavily in critical MD - is hurting Steele's (R) bid for Senate in the state. The consensus is that it's poorly timed and somewhat tasteless. Our take on it is move on to more pressing issues like a closer examination of candidate platforms:

When a black conservative group ran a radio ad proclaiming that the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican, reaction was swift. "We've gotten some e-mails and telephone calls filled with vitriol," said Frances Rice, chairman of the National Black Republican Association. "They've called me Aunt Jemima, a sellout, a traitor to my race."

In the battle for the black electorate, liberals, who make up the overwhelming majority of black voters, have long disagreed with conservatives over ideology, public policy and economic strategies to better the lives of African Americans. But when conservatives placed the civil rights movement in a Republican context, black liberals said, they crossed a line.

MD - Steele, Cardin, Hoyer & Race ...

2006-10-18T09:43:00.000-04:00

This is the year of White folks using words they probably shouldn't have even thought to use in the first place. Reports the Baltimore Sun:

... Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House of Representatives, as saying Steele has made a career of "slavishly supporting the Republican Party."

Heye said the comment, made at an event in Prince George's County last weekend, was racist. The National Black Church Initiative President, the Rev. Anthony Evans, and High Impact Leadership Coalition Chairman Bishop Harry Jackson condemned the remark.In a statement released yesterday, Hoyer said, "I should not have used that word."

"If Mr. Steele did, in fact, take offense, let me assure him that none was intended," Hoyer said. "But Mr. Steele continuously tries to divert attention from the fact that he is an unwavering supporter of the Republican agenda and of President Bush and Vice President Cheney."

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) now joins a growing list of grey haired White politicos in 2006 using inappropriate references to people of color. White House Press Secretary Tony Snow and "tar baby"; Sen. George Allen (R-VA) for that notorious "M" word and past use of the legendary "N" word which torpedoed his re-election bid; and VA Senate Dem challenger James Webb for probably using the "N" word, too. Anyway - it doesn't matter because we all think differently in the comfort of our homes ...

Steele and the GOP come off as somewhat disingenuous by pressing too hard with the race talk. First: there is a risk of this tactic looking contrived. Besides, Republicans are well known for nailing Democrats on "race-baiting" - and what do you call this strategy? Second: Black Republicans/Conservatives - such as Steele - have traditionally criticized the Black political establishment for promoting an ideology of "victimization." Now, Steele struggles to paint himself as the "victim" or the "target" of White racist attitudes in the Free State. Steele should chill on this rhetoric because it will give the impression that he's deliberately avoiding a conversation on the issues and his platform.

TN - On Ford's Dating Habits

2006-10-17T16:51:00.000-04:00

In a sign of desperation confirming the ascendancy of Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) to the Senate, the National Republican Senatorial Committee drops the irrelevant. We assume it's an attempt to offend the somewhat prudish sensibilities of Bible-carrying Southern conservatives in the state:

WASHINGTON--The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) issued the following release after The Commercial Appeal reported more details of Congressman Harold Ford, Jr.'s previous "nonexclusive courtship" with a Georgetown University sophomore:

"It's good to hear Congressman Ford's Georgetown University girlfriend's spring break planning didn't get in the way of his meetings with the President," said Dan Ronayne, NRSC Spokesman. "But the least Fancy Ford could have done was call her back after news broke of their relationship. Not providing closure is distinctly un-fancy."

The Commercial Appeal Reports "The Younger Ford's Dating Life Is An Active, But Quieter Affair. 'He Met Julia Baugher, A Georgetown University Sophmore [sic] And Sex Columnist While Celebrating His 31st Birthday At Paolo's, A Restaurant In Washington." (Halimah Abdullah, "Growing Up In The Political Spotlight, Ford Learned The Ropes As A Youngster," The Commercial Appeal, October 15, 2006)

LA - We Saw this Coming ...

2006-10-17T15:24:00.000-04:00

Times-Picayune reports:

In an extraordinary vote against an incumbent congressman, Louisiana Democratic Party leaders on Saturday endorsed state Rep. Karen Carter of New Orleans for the 2nd District House seat held since 1991 by Rep. William Jefferson, whose campaign for re-election has been hampered by a federal bribery investigation.

In a meeting at the Old State Capitol, the party's state Central Committee voted 69-53 to endorse Carter in the Nov. 7 election after hearing appeals from Carter and Jefferson, the only two candidates who received nominations for the endorsement.

While Carter celebrated the vote as an important statement against unethical behavior, Jefferson lashed out not only at Carter but also at stalwarts of the state Democratic Party establishment, including former U.S. Sens. John Breaux and Bennett Johnston, who Jefferson said were behind Carter's endorsement.

CT - Black Democratic Group Charging Lieberman Falsified Civil Rights Record

2006-10-11T21:46:00.000-04:00

Recent news out of Connecticut as the Senate candidates scratch and claw for swing Black votes:

The Connecticut Federation of Black Democratic Clubs, which includes 20 clubs across the state, endorsed Lieberman's Democratic rival Ned Lamont and questioned whether he marched for civil rights.

"Senator, the Connecticut Federation of Black Democratic Clubs is offended by your television ad which claims you were an advocate for African-Americans' first-class citizenship and as such you marched for our civil rights," said Henry E. Parker, a former state treasurer, during a news conference attended by Lamont.

"Our research indicates that there is no evidence of you taking any action that could be described as an initiative to remove the shackles of second-class citizenship," Parker said.
Lieberman's campaign produced a 1963 college newspaper clip that cites Lieberman's reporting from Jackson, Miss., about the arrests of civil rights workers. Lieberman was chairman of the Yale Daily News.

Polls Show Ford In a Dead Heat, but Numbers are Disturbing

2006-10-11T13:45:00.000-04:00

Congressman Harold Ford, Jr., according to recent polls, is locked in a dead heat for the open US Senate seat from Tennessee. However, when one exams the crosstabs Ford's support is tenuous and may be weakening.

While our "Trends in Black Races" shows Ford with a slim 2 point lead averaged over the last 3 polls, a remarkable position to be in with just over 3 weeks left in the campaign, when you dig into numbers you begin to see some issues.

The "Reticence Level", the lack of support from one's own party, is relatively low for Ford (19%), but it seems to be increasing and his support from Republicans ("Cross Support -X-Support") is coming down. In a close race you would expect party registrants to return "home" which explains the decrease in GOP support for Ford, but it also illustrates a problem for the Ford campaign with the rising Reticence Level.

While the politically shrewd Ford may be able to overcome those numbers, the fact that only 70% of African Americans in a recent SurveyUSA poll are supporting him should be a cause for alarm.

To win this race Ford will need a massive black voter turnout and will need to garner at least 75% plus of that vote to win the race against former Chattanooga Mayor and GOP nominee Bob Corker.

The race is still very winnable, but the deeper poll numbers show the path will not be easy.

Affirmative Action in Trouble in Michigan

2006-10-11T13:25:00.000-04:00

In a recent poll done by SurveyUSA the life of Affirmative Action in Michigan may be in its last days.

Of those being questioned 36% said they would vote for a ballot initiative that would prohibit state entities, including colleges and universities, from using race for contracts, recruitment, enrollment etc. Only 29% said they would vote no on the ballot question. 35% of those in the survey were undecided.

Those numbers are down from a survey conducted in June, but the opponents have to be concerned that a quarter of Democrats support the initiative as do a third of African Americans. 50% of Republicans support the question, but according to SurveyUSA 55% of those in the survey are "unfamiliar" with initiative that will be on the ballot in November.

CO - Paccione within Striking Distance

2006-10-10T16:35:00.000-04:00

Things have gotten so bad for Republicans that an African American, 2 term State Representative, who hails from the Bronx, New York can find herself only trailing by an average of 5 points over the last two polls against a two term conservative incumbent in a conservative district.

Angie Paccione, dead even in a poll her campaign has commissioned, has run a cagey and hard fought campaign and has raised over $1 million for her bid in Colorado's fourth congressional district.

The fourth, which runs the expanse of Colorado's rural eastern plains, has an African American population of less than 1%. However, the incumbent Cong. Marilyn Musgrave, a very conservative member of Congress, may be catching some of the downdraft of the Republican free fall that seems to be occurring across the country.

If Paccione pulls this out the Democratic win nationally will have been decisive and massive and the CBC will have it first member from the Colorado.

Razor Tight and Not So

2006-10-03T15:48:00.000-04:00

The United States Senate race in Tennessee looks like it is going to go down to the wire. Most recent polls show that Democratic nominee Harold Ford, Jr. leading GOP pick Bob Corker by the slimmest of margins.

The "Trends in Black Races" shows that Congressman Ford is holding on to 1.7% lead when the last three polls are averaged out. But in the most recent survey, the Middle Tennessee University Poll, Ford trails the Chattanooga mayor by only one point.

While the Ford/Corker race is razor tight other major races featuring African American candidates are not so close. Our "Trends in Black Races" shows Democratic nominee for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and Maryland Lt. Governor and GOP nominee for the US Senate Michael Steele with the best chances to win. Patrick is up by an average of 33.2%, but Steele is down to Democratic pick Rep. Ben Cardin in his race by an average of five points.

To check the campaigns of Lynn Swann and Ken Blackwell and other candidates and their campaigns click here and review the "Black Races".

MD - Another Race Getting Caught up in Race

2006-09-28T09:46:00.000-04:00

There is a certain ambivalence in Black political discourse that tends to occassionally bother us all, regardless of political affiliation, ideological leaning or background. It's how we define our politics through the lense of our racial experience and cultural identity - although we have, through movements, protest, law suits and legislation, fiercely objected to the notion that we should be perceived solely through the color of our skin. That's a tough dilemma that's hard to shake, especially when considering that the extent of our political empowerment is critically shaped by how well we can position ourselves in the body politic.

It's easy for folks to claim that we have reached the political Promise Land and risen to a moment where African Americans can be effectively and compassionately represented by an elected official of any racial or ethnic persuasion, particularly a White one. But, let's not kid ourselves. The experience gap is more than just that - it's a gulf. Ultimately, African Americans will not experience any sort of tangible or sustainable political or economic power until they have littered the City Halls, State Assemblies, Congressional Chambers and White Houses with their authoritative presence. That will then lead to lasting and universal respect.

We write this because we're certain the mainstream, White-dominated public policy and political establishment grows tired of this "Black political" talk. Watch what happens in VA as voters, pundits and campaigns alike will grow all "M****a'ed" and "N****r'ed" out, and more issue focused. MD - much like VA - is now becoming a state gripped by "race" talk in what will definitely be a hotly contested and dramatic Senate race between two very qualified and viable candidates that seem to defy the universe of American political conventions: A White Democrat and a Black Republican. How the Earth spins its axis on that one. Many Black Democrats (who dominate the Black political scene in that state) are scrambling to place their bets and endorsements, obviously conflicted between party allegiance and cultural affinity. We've talked quite a bit about Black voters in the state (we think Steele will get 40% of that bloc come November - seriously). But, let's take a look at White voters in that state, the predominant bloc (it's hard to gauge Latino, Asian and other immigrant voting blocs at this stage)

There are a few ways this could play out according to the mood swings of White voters that day ...

Scenario 1: Former NAACP head, Congressman and now MD Senate primary loser Kweisi Mfume (D) made a good point during his somewhat tepid endorsement of Dem nominee Rep. Ben Cardin (D) as reported by the Washington Post: "The Democratic nominees for the top four jobs, he noted, look no different than the ticket 50 years ago". White voters in MD may be growing very weary and possibly resentful of all this talk about qualified Black politicos getting passed over - it implies what White Northerners are always in denial about: their sloppy racial attitudes. So, if Democrats are not careful in the clumsy bum rush to court Black voters, they might end up losing predominant White voters who pick GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) in a show of support for diversity. We don't really think like that.

Scenario 2: Or: White voters might be getting tired of all this talk about "Black people" and what "Black voters deserve," encouraging them to simply vote Republican out of an intrinsic fear that Democrats will give up too much political clout to heavily Black Baltimore and Prince George's County. Cardin's camp has gotten all the Black political endorsements it needs at this point. It may be tactically prudent to now move on and get to the business of campaigning the rest of the state.

Scenario 3: Democrats, so worried about losing Black voters in the state, appear to concentrate most of their efforts in the heavily African American parts of the state - at the risk of ignoring other parts of the state. Republicans could be banking on that, privately driving the "Black talk" as a political diversion tactic. Cardin's camp (recently pressed about racial insensitivity within its campaign leadership) may privately take Steele's Reticence Level among White voters for granted, thinking they will automatically vote for the old White guy. That assumption could turn on them if they don't take a look at the Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) 2002 playbook.

Scenario 4: As we get closer to Election Day, these races will become more and more localized. Democrats shouldn't simply assume that the geo-political climate and bad Presidential approval ratings will translate into automatic gains for them. Ultimately, voters want to actually see what you can do for them or have done. How you vote on Iraq may not be the only thing that gets you in the cut.

12 Days Later Edwards Concedes to Wynn

2006-09-25T14:59:00.000-04:00

After nearly two weeks of counting votes in Maryland's fourth Congressional District challenger Donna Edwards finally conceded the race to incumbent Al Wynn late Sunday night.

The latest count showed Edwards down by 2,275 with only a few thousands left to be tabulated.

Edwards, who made Wynn's support of the war in Iraq a key point in this campaign, said the problems many in the district had with the electronic voting machines "really troubled" her but she is no longer consideration legal action which look like a real possibility on election day and shortly thereafter.

Wynn agreed that there were problems and but thinks better training and pay for poll workers will begin to cure some of these issues.

photo Washington Post

MA - Patrick Surges from the Gate

2006-09-23T16:57:00.000-04:00

After a resounding victory in the Democratic primary Deval Patrick staked a huge lead in the first post primary poll against Republican nominee Lt. Governor Kerry Healey. In a SurveyUSA poll on the Governor's race in Massachusetts Patrick leads Healey by a stunning 39 points.

Patrick, a former US Assistant Attorney General in the Clinton administration, leads in every category and enjoys a low "Reticence Level" of only 13 points. He is also receiving support from over a quarter of the Republicans surveyed in the poll. In a commonwealth with an African American population of only six percent Patrick has cobbled together a victory inducing mosaic of racial support topping Healey in the white, African American and Hispanic responses.

Patrick won the primary by a surprising 23 points with a grassroots movement that continues to traverse the state and with only six weeks left in the campaign the SurveyUSA numbers bode well for the Democratic nominee.

FL - Nominee Taps African American Running Mate

2006-09-22T17:45:00.000-04:00

Trying to capture an open governor's office and needing every vote from his party's most faithful base, Democratic nominee Jim Davis of Florida, picked former state Senator Darryl Jones as his Lt. Governor candidate.

The Davis/Jones ticket should be a formidable opponent to the GOP team of Charlie Crist and Jeff Kottkamp. Polls show this to be a relatively close race, in early September SurveyUSA had Crist up 8 points, and Davis will need the African American vote to pick him up. However, Davis has work to do within the black community.

During the primary a Davis opponent reminded voters that Davis, while in the legislature in the 1990, refused to vote for compensation for two African American men who were wrongly convicted of a crime. Davis, who was running for Majority Leader at the time and needed conservative votes, has since admitted he was wrong.

Jones, who spent 10 years in the Florida Senate, made a spirited run for Governor four years ago but finished third.

MD - Ehrlich Wants to Scrap E-Ballots ...

2006-09-20T20:55:00.000-04:00

Baltimore Sun reports:

... told the three-member Board of Public Works, which authorized the purchase of the equipment in June and July, that the malfunction was "intolerable" and that she would "hold Diebold accountable" by requiring the Ohio-based company to provide a written summary of the problem by Friday and fix every machine before the Nov. 7 general election in 48 days.That, however, did not sit well with the governor, who wants the poll books scrapped for the November election and floated the idea of convening a special session of the General Assembly to do so."We literally cannot afford to see take place the events that took place on primary day," Ehrlich said. "We were lucky during the primary that there was low turnout."

First: maybe this is part of the problem - there is an expectation of low voter turnout that leads election officials to not take this function seriously. Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich's (R) hard-line, somewhat activist "go-paper" stand may help him slightly in his bid for a second term depending on the Democratic response. However, the Governor's outrage seems a day late and a dollar short.

Yes He Did

2006-09-20T12:09:00.000-04:00

To the chants of "Yes We Can" in a raucous hotel ballroom former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick claimed the the Democratic nomination for Governor of Massachusetts.
Patrick, who glided to an easy primary victory, said he grassroots approach was the reason for his victory and said that a "politics of hope and possibilities" would lead him to victory in November.

With a dispatched opponent, Chris Gaberieli, standing at this side the Democratic nominee spoke about expanding the economy and economic justice, building quality and universal health care and striding for excellence in all public schools across the commonwealth. Saying there should be no focus on left or right but only a focus on right and wrong and advancing the common interest of the commonwealth, Patrick predicted victory in seven weeks.

Patrick will face Lt. Governor Kerry Healey in the general election and will enter that race as the favorite since he has led most polls in match ups with Healey by an average of 12 points.

Poised for Victory

2006-09-18T13:34:00.000-04:00

In the most recent Groff/Ellison Political Report we said that Deval Patrick's run for Governor of Massachusetts was the "best case scenario for an African American to win a high level office".

The truth of that statement will be decided tomorrow when Massachusetts holds it primary election and Patrick takes on venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli and Attorney General Tom Reilly for the Democratic nomination.

The race between the three has been relatively close with Patrick leading for most of the spring and summer. However, a Boston Globe/CBS4-TV survey conducted last week shows Patrick opening up a whopping 21 point lead.

If that poll is correct or even close and Patrick wins the party nod tomorrow, he would be the overwhelming favorite to win the Governor's Mansion in a state that is heavily Democratic.

In most polls he leads presumptive GOP choice Lt. Governor Kerry Healy by an average of 12 points since June.

Steele Starts Down

2006-09-18T13:07:00.000-04:00

After cruising through the primary season Maryland Lt. Governor and GOP US Senate nominee Michael Steele finds himself down seven in the first General Election poll pitting him against Democratic choice Congressman Ben Cardin.

In a poll released by Rasmussen Reports over the weekend, Lt. Gov. Steele has a favorable rating of 60% and a Reticence Level (lack of support from the Republicans) of only 17% in the survey. The question, unanswered in the poll, is what will be the level of his African American support. We think he will need to receive at least 25-30% of the African American vote to win in November.

The sooner we find an answer to that question the sooner we'll see if the Rasmussen Reports Poll is correct.

IN-Carson Up 15

2006-09-18T12:43:00.000-04:00

Some may have underestimated the 68 year old 4 term Congresswomen Julia Carson of Indiana, but voters in Indiana's 7th Congressional district haven't. A poll, conducted from September 5-8, shows Ms. Carson with a 15 point lead over Republican nominee Eric Dickerson.

In one of the six races that will pit African American candidates against one another in November, Ms. Carson seems to have the edge with voter registration and the nuances that flow from incumbancy like fundraising.

As of today Ms. Carson has raised over $200,ooo and Mr. Dickerson has totaled just over $32,000.

The seventh CD encompasses the city of Indianapolis and close in suburbs and is one of two districts held by Democrats in Indiana. The other 7 are held by Republicans.

MD - The 2-Days After: Wynn/Edwards Battle Still Toss Up

2006-09-14T12:45:00.000-04:00

Last check, primary provisional ballots in Maryland's hotly contested District 4 are still being counted, with 94% of precincts reporting. Incumbent Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD) manages a slight lead still with 50% to an aggressive challenge from activist Donna Edwards who claims 47%. Edwards, predictably, wants every provisional ballot counted in light of Sept. 12th's electronic voting machine debacle throughout Montgomery & Prince George's Counties in Maryland. The focus right now is on Mont.Co., as Edwards maintained a significant lead in that area of CD 4.

Wins and Losses and the September 12th Primaries

2006-09-13T15:36:00.000-04:00

There was the a lot of talk and chatter leading up to yesterday's primary. Would Kweisi Mfume win the Democratic nod and set up a historic battle with probable GOP nominee Michael Steele?

Could St. Rep. Keith Ellison overcome bad press and relentless attacks and questions about his faith and win Minnesota's DFL nomination in congressional district 5?

Who would win the Democratic nomination for Mayor of Washington DC and become the probable Mayor of the capital city?

Would the African American vote in New York's 11th congressional district be split allowing a white candidate to win a 60% African American district represented by a black Congressperson for over 30 years?

And could a pro-war vote and support of the Iraqi action cost an African American member of congress his seat?

As of the writing of this blog, the answers to almost all of those questions have been answered.

At 5:00 pm MDT the race in Maryland's 4th Congressional district is still a toss up. Incumbent Al Wynn, who's pro war vote and support caused a white hot challenge by Donna Edwards, is up by only 2800 votes with 95% of the vote reporting.

Elsewhere in Maryland: Kweisi Mfume came up short in his bid to win the Democratic nomination for the US Senate to Congressman Ben Cardin 46% to 39%. In the Attorney General race Stuart Simms, who entered the contest late after his Lt. Gubernatorial candidancy was short-circuited, lost to Douglas Gansler by 12 points. In the campaign to replace Ben Cardin in Congress, Mishonda Baldwin received only 2% of the vote in the Congressional District 3 contest. And as expected Republican Michael Steele, the Commonwealth's Lt. Governor, stormed to victory receiving 87% of vote. Another candidate for the GOP Senate nomination Corrigan Vaughn only received 1%.

In New York: Yvette Clarke withstood a fierce challenge from three other candidates, Carl Andrews, Chris Owens and David Yassky, to win the Democratic nomination for the open 11th Congressional District. A pre-race poll should that Yassky, a white city councilman, in a four way dead heat in a district that is 60% African American. In the nearby 10th CD Edolphus Towns held off challenges from Charles Barren and Roger Green and the won the right to represent the Democratic Party for another term. Charlie King lost his effort for Attorney General to Andrew Cuomo and Assemblyman David Paterson, who is legally blind, won the Democratic nomination to be Lt. Governor of New York. Paterson was tapped by gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer to be his running mate.

In Washington DC: A tight race for Mayor was blown wide open by young City Councilman Adrian Fenty in the closing weeks of the campaign and Fenty went on to beat City Council Chair Linda Cropp by 26 points. With the District's democratic registration over 70% Fenty appears well on his way to being the next Mayor of DC.

Finally in Minnesota: State Representative Keith Ellison held off personal issues, questions about his Muslim faith and 6 opponents to win the Democratic-Farm-Labor nomination to be the next Congressman from Minneapolis' 5th district and the first Muslim ever elected to Congress. Lastly in a strange contest in Minnesota's 4th CD Ogabazghi Sium crushed Jack Shepherd for the GOP nomination, but Shepherd couldn't campaign for the post because he is fugitive from the law and lives...in Italy.

Next week Massachusetts holds its primary and Deval Patrick, who received more good poll news today, will be up against two opponents in his campaign for governor.

New York CD 11 about to Tennessee Itself

2006-09-11T13:29:00.000-04:00

Here we go again. A congressional seat held by African Americans for decades comes open, a whole bunch of black folks run and voila, the seat is won by a white candidate.

It happened in Tennessee's Ninth Congressional district last month and is poised to happen again in New York's 11th congressional district tomorrow.

New York's congressional district 11 is currently held by Major Owens and encompasses the entire historic enclave of Brooklyn in New York City. It is 60% African American and has been represented by an African American since 1969 when the venerable Shirley Chisholm was elected. Owens replaced Rep. Chisholm in 1983 and is not seeking reelection.

Once the seat opened up the candidates poured in and the race is now a toss up. A poll released yesterday shows that all four candidates are within a point of one another. State Senator Carl Andrews, Councilwomen Yvette Clarke, Owens son Chris and Councilmember David Yassky will battle to get their vote out tomorrow, but for Owens, Clarke and Andrews they may be fighting over the same people, divvying up the vote and opening the door for Yassky to waltz in and do a Tennessee two step.

We've seen it before.

Brown Out in DC

2006-09-08T22:39:00.000-04:00

Lagging in the polls and struggling to raise money with the primary on Tuesday, Michael Brown saw the writing on the wall and withdrew from the Washington DC mayor's race yesterday. Brown threw his support behind City Council President Linda Cropp, who is currently running second in the polls.

Brown, who was tracking fourth in the five person race, said he couldn't "... watch a political novice, a man without the courage and strength required to run the city, attempt to steal this race from someone who has seen the city through its worse times...," as to why he is supporting Cropp. Those remarks apparently were aimed at front runner Councilman Adrian Fenty who holds a ten point lead according a recent poll.

Brown's support for Cropp didn't surprise pundits since the Cropp family and Brown's are very close and have been for decades.

The first act of support by Brown, the son of the late Commerce Secretary Ron Brown, was to call the other two candidates in the race, Councilman Vincent Orange and former Verizon exec Marie Jones and gauge their interest in withdrawing, but both declined to do so.

Anti-Affirmative Action Proposal Now Trails

2006-09-07T16:57:00.000-04:00

A recent poll done by Seltzer and Company for Local 4 Michigan and the Detroit Free Press shows that a statewide initiative to ban Affirmative Action is now failing 43% to 41%. Sixteen percent of those surveyed are unsure.

The poll, conducted between August 28-30, is not that much different than the survey taken in June (mentioned in a June 19 blog) with the major exception that the proposal led in June but is behind now.

The most recent poll has a 3.5% margin of error.

Ford in Dead Heat

2006-09-07T16:45:00.000-04:00

According to a snap shot poll done by Rasmussen Reports yesterday Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. is down by only one point to GOP nominee Bob Corker. Click here for the poll.

Ford, the Democratic nominee has trailed the Chattanooga mayor by as many as six points in previous polls.

In a poll released by the Ford campaign in late August the Congressman led Corker by two points.

Chicago Mayoral Race Heating Up ....

2006-09-03T20:55:00.000-04:00

A Mayoral race to keep an eye on, as the Chicago Sun-Times reports:

Demanding change but refusing to pinpoint what Mayor Daley has done wrong, Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown declared her candidacy for mayor Thursday with a promise to eliminate corruption and guarantee equal access to jobs and contracts.

Instead, she focused on broad-stroke promises to eliminate waste and corruption, improve all Chicago public schools and guarantee fair access to city jobs and contracts.

"We did not make the decision to run for mayor . . . just because of the corruption that has recently occurred in this administration. We feel that we're very qualified to be the mayor of the city of Chicago and we're gonna run on our record and what we can do," she said.

The "we" language is rather compelling and definitely seeks to rally serious Black support in Chicago, 63% of which went to Daley in the previous Mayoral fight. Still, Brown has many skeletons rattling:

But Brown's political career has not been without controversy, either.

A former CTA auditor, she was elected clerk in 2000 on a promise to modernize file-keeping, only to be dogged by the same complaints that plagued her predecessor.

Lawyers and judges have alleged that records take months to get filed. The backlog is so severe that some documents never make it into case files, they contend.

In March 2004, she recommended a suspension for an employee who had complimentary tickets to Brown's political fund-raiser dropped into every judge's mailbox at the Skokie courthouse.

Dozens of current and former staffers also told the Sun-Times they were pressured to buy tickets to Brown fund-raisers and to work on her campaign on county time.

In May 2005, the County Board rejected Brown's efforts to award a $250,000 no-bid consulting contract to a firm that was part of her 2000 transition team. Two months later, she was one of 28 county officials to attend a conference in Honolulu at taxpayers' expense.

Not So Fast Mr. Congressman

2006-09-01T12:19:00.000-04:00

Two days ago a Gonzales Research poll showed Congressman Ben Cardin (D-MD) opening up a good lead over former Congressman and NAACP head Kweisi Mfume in the race for the Democratic nomination for US Senator from Maryland.

However, in a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MD) it is Mr. Mfume who winds up ahead of Rep. Cardin with 13% still undecided.

The race promises to be close, especially if Mr. Mfume taps into the political machines of Congressmen Al Wynn and Elijah Cummings who endorsed the Mfume effort earlier this week.

The primary is set for September 12.

Look for an overview of the muffin race in the next issue of the Groff/Ellison Political Report on Tuesday September 12.

Fordham University Professor Terry Smith on NY District 11 Race

2006-09-01T12:13:00.000-04:00

Blackpolicy.org talks with Fordham University Professor of Law and blackprof.com Contributor Terry Smith about the NY district 11 race, split Black voting and White candidates in majority Black districts. Two parts on ASCENT Perspectives, part of the Ascent Speaks Audioblog Network.

Mfume Down with Three Weeks Left and Two Separate themselves in DC

2006-08-31T12:07:00.000-04:00

A new poll shows that Kweisi Mfume's hope of being a United States Senator from the Commonwealth of Maryland may be just a dream. The Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies survey showed the former Congressman and NAACP chief down by 13 points to Congressman Ben Cardin (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MD).

Mfume, who received a boost this week when Maryland Congressmen Al Wynn and Elijah Cummings endorsed him, is not yet out of the race but will need a massive get out the vote effort in the African American community to win. That major effort is needed to makeup for the lack of support the poll shows he has among white voters.

That major election day push is now feasible with the late endorsement from Representatives Wynn and Cummings, whose get out the vote efforts are legendary in the commonwealth and will have to be if Mfume is to top Cardin in the primary on September 12.

That same day the Democratic primary for Mayor of Washington DC will be held and if a SurveyUSA poll is correct the next Mayor of the nation's capital will be either Linda Cropp or Adrian Fenty (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=DC).

Cropp, the City Council president and Fenty, Councilman from Ward 4, have separated themselves from the five person field and are garnering the support of 70% of those who were polled.

The race comes at a period of transition for the city creating a new racial dynamic for the next Mayor, who could be the last African American mayor in DC for a longtime.

For an outlook on the DC race click here to a piece on the Groff/Ellison Political Report. (PDF)

Cummings, Wynn Endorse Mfume

2006-08-30T12:04:00.000-04:00

Washington Post reports:

Maryland's two black congressmen will formally endorse Kweisi Mfume's U.S. Senate bid today as Mfume and his chief Democratic rival, Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, strive to lock up support from African American voters.

This is fairly significant for Mfume, who - by most accounts - hasn't been running what experts might call a stellar campaign. Fundraising has been a challenge; his ads are late and it's taken him a while to get these two critical CBC endorsements. But, to his credit, Mfume knows how to scrap being from the old school of hard knocks. And, he's got better name recognition - particularly throughout Black Maryland - than Cardin.

For Mfume, he faces a stiff Reticence Level amongst White Democrats. White voters in Maryland sure enough know Mfume and some even like him - but: are they willing to put a brother in the Senate? So he'll need Black Democrats to get him over that hump.

A couple of reasons why Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) and Rep. Albert Wynn (D-MD) are suddenly coming around after more than a year of speculation:

- Cummings realizes that he has a better chance of leveraging his power-base in Baltimore with a brother in the Senate rather than a White dude. It's pure culture and the mathematics of familiarity. Go with what you know. But, there is also real fear that Black Republican and Senate candidate Lt. Gov. Michael Steele - especially with endorsements from Russell Simmons and Cathy Hughes and other key figures - will win this race. Steele, hailing from Black money rush Prince George's County, Maryland, is sure to look out more for his home base in P.G. than Baltimore. On the flip side of that equation, a Senator Mfume would be more inclined to look out for his home base of B'More, translating into federal dollars for Cummings district.

- Wynn's endorsement is a bit more complicated, because Wynn is really concerned about Wynn right now. Even though he knows a Senator Steele will probably be the best thing to happen to P.G. County since big name retailers started moving in (depending on how you look at that), he's fighting for his political life right now in a tight race against primary challenger Donna Edwards, a fierce Black community activist who is making headway by blasting Wynn's vote for the Iraq War and characterizing him as not "progressive" enough. That message is resonating with Black P.G. voters. Wynn believes he gets instant street cred by endorsing Mfume.

Williams Easily in Michigan

2006-08-28T21:12:00.000-04:00

Late last week it looked as if Amos Williams' bid to become the Democratic Attorney General nominee in Michigan would be tough as opponent Scott Bowen came to the Sunday party convention with the support, allegedly, of Governor Jennifer Granholm.

But as floor fight for the nomination began in earnest in Cobo Center it was clear that Williams, an attorney from Detroit, would clinch the nomination Judge Bowen conceded the race and Williams became the party's pick to take on incumbent Attorney General Mike Cox in November.

To learn more about Williams' campaign click here http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MI.

Swann's Campaign Slows...Again

2006-08-28T20:03:00.000-04:00

He seems to claw to within winning distance and then seems to fall back. Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann was down 10 points in a poll released by Strategic Vision just a week and a half, but in a new Rasmussen Reports Poll finds the Republican nominee down by 12 (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=PA) this week.

Swann will have to battle the increasing favorability rating of incumbent opponent Ed Rendell and find a way to decrease a Reticence Level of 40% (only 60% of Republicans polled support the former football star) to make this a race again.

Blackwell Drops Further Behind

2006-08-28T19:36:00.000-04:00

The latest Rasmussen Reports Poll shows that GOP gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell has a huge uphill climb to become Ohio's first African American governor.

The poll,http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=OH, has the current Secretary of State down by 25 points to Democratic nominee Congressman Ted Strickland and suffering from a preposterous Reticence Level of 41% (only 59% of Republicans support Blackwell in the poll). Cong. Strickland, according to the poll, is immensely popular and receiving nearly unanimous support from Democrats (Reticence Level of only 12%) and appears to be on his way to Columbus.

However, as most pundits know campaigns in Ohio are won on the ground and maybe Mr. Blackwell has a ground blitzkrieg planned for election day -- it appears he's going to need one.

Massachusetts Race A Dead Heat

2006-08-28T17:26:00.000-04:00

The Democratic primary for Governor of Massachusetts appears to be a dead heat just 3 weeks from the primary election according to a Boston Globe poll (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MA).

The poll, released on August 23, shows Deval Patrick leading the three man primary by 4 points among registered Democrats most likely to vote. Among Dems and independents Patrick lead is only 1 point over businessman Chris Gabrieli and 3 points over Attorney General Tom Reilly.

Patrick, a former US Assistant Attorney General, has led the race for most of the spring and summer has the lowest unfavorable rating of the three and enjoys a favorable ranking of 51%.

The primary is September 19th.

Ford Leads in Tennessee...According to Ford

2006-08-23T12:40:00.000-04:00

An internal poll conduced for US Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr. shows the Congressman from Memphis leading his Republican opponent by two points (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=TN).

The poll, conducted by Benenson Strategy Group, also shows Ford with a 55% favorable rating compared to GOP nominee and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker's 48%.

The survey is not necessarily out of step with other independent polls that showed Ford trailing Corker by 4 to 6 points.

Internal polls are used constantly by candidates to track the impact of recent ads, momentum and news stories.

Mixed News for Patrick in Massachusetts

2006-08-23T11:48:00.001-04:00

After cruising along for the past several months with a lead in the Democratic primary for Governor of Massachusetts former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick is now behind in one poll and clinging to a 4 point lead in another http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MA.

In the 7 News-Suffolk University Poll Patrick trails venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli by 8 points but leads presumptive GOP nominee Lt. Governor Kerry Healey in a general election match-up 38% to 30%. Gabrieli's lead is the first of the campaign season and comes on the heals of a recent barrage of television ads.

Despite those ads a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday however, shows Patrick with a 4 point lead over Gabrieli and the other candidate Attorney General Tom Reilly. The margin of error in the poll is 4.8% meaning this race in their view is a dead heat.

The race, despite leads by Patrick in the double digits through the summer and spring, was bound to be close and with the primary scheduled for September 19 the race certainly is tightening.

Rep. Rangel Ends Silence and Endorses...

2006-08-22T17:48:00.000-04:00

Venerable Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY) was trying to stay out of the Democratic primary for Attorney General in New York. The Democratic primary is a pitched battle between Andrew Cuomo, Mark Green, Charlie King and Sean Patrick Maloney and will be settled on September 12. Mr. King is the only African American in the AG primary.

However, after attacks on Mr. Cuomo by Mark Green, Rep. Rangel decided to endorse Mr. Cuomo a former US Secretary of Housing in the Clinton adminstration. Mr. Cuomo, the son of former NY Governor Mario Cuomo, was on Mr. Rangel bad list just two years ago when Mr. Cuomo decided to run for Governor in the Democratic primary against H. Carl McCall, who was bidding to be the state's first African American governor.

While Mr. McCall won the primary (but lost the general election to Governor Pataki) the race caused some hard feelings in the African American community. Some of those feelings have thawed though and several other African American elected officials stood with Mr. Rangel to show support for Mr. Cuomo.

However, not all big name African American icons are supporting the Cuomo effort, as former Mayor David Dinkins earlier this campaign endorsed Mark Green.

Flippin' the Script

2006-08-22T17:27:00.000-04:00

Hip Hop mogul Russell Simmons is known as a supporter of liberal candidates and causes. However, the left leaning Simmons will host a fundraiser for GOP Maryland Senate candidate Michael Steele on Thursday in Baltimore.

The event, co-hosted with Radio-One CEO Cathy Hughes and rap trailblazer DJ Kid Capri, will add not only dollars to the Steele campaign, but may add credibility for the Lt. Governor in the African American community. Mr. Steele not one to shy away from the black community may be able to use the event to boost his efforts in the community and push him toward the 20% plus of the African American vote he'll need to win in November, especially if he faces Congressman Ben Cardin. Rep. Cardin faces former Congressman and President of the NAACP Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary on September 12.

Williams Appears Headed Toward Victory

2006-08-22T11:21:00.000-04:00

At the Michigan Democratic convention on Sunday the story maybe the bitterly close Governor's race involving incumbent Governor Jennifer Granholm and GOP nominee Dick DeVos, but the other big story could be Amos Williams clinching the party's nomination for Attorney General. Inside sources tell Black Races that Mr. Williams' internal polls have him with a commanding 5 to 1 edge if the nomination comes to a vote.

Mr. Williams is joined in the primary by Scott Bowen and Geoffrey Fieger but Democratic heavyweights Congressman David Bonier, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick and major labor organizations have signed up with the Williams effort.

Maryland Senate Race Still Very Close

2006-08-21T21:01:00.000-04:00

A new Rasmussen Reports Poll shows that the race for Senator from Maryland remains very tight (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MD).

Regardless of who the Democratic nominee happens to be, either former Congressman Kweisi Mfume or current member of Congress Ben Cardin, Lt. Governor and presumptive GOP pick Michael Steele gives each a run for their money.

Steele is down two points to Mfume and only 5 points to Cardin and enjoys a higher favorable rating than either. The most interesting part of the poll to us however is the support among Democrats that Steele is receiving. Against Cardin 20% of Dems polled said they would support Steele and against Mfume 21% of Democrats said they would vote for Steele. If those numbers hold and Steele finds a way to carve out 20% plus of the African American vote (no small feat) the seat currently held by Democrat Paul Sarbanes could switch parties.

The Cousin Jeff Manifesto...

2006-08-21T20:51:00.000-04:00

BET personality & public relations executive Rev. Jeff Johnson's somewhat lengthy mixed rebuttal/explanation regarding his new association with OH Sec. of State Ken Blackwell's campaign transformed itself into a sort of modern Black political manifesto.

It's truly unfortunate that a credible activist with Johnson's track record should suffer such scorn and have to justify himself through an open letter. Too many Black people cry foul when the predominant White society creates an intellectual barrier against free thought, yet are quick to police other Black people's views ...

However, we also see this as an opportunity where "Cousin Jeff" - as he is affectionately known on BET - makes quite a compelling and very significant point:

That post-civil rights shift brings us in many cases to where we currently exist: the era of the professional activist. The post civil rights leadership provided by many we know and some we don’t know has been both incredibly effective in some areas and simultaneously negligent in others. We have seen great gains by many people of color as a result of much of their work. However, many of our leaders and organizations are now supporting these same alliances without the manifestation of social or policy changes for our community.

Certainly, Johnson's new affiliation is bringing much glee to Republicans and conservatives seeking to attract just enough Black votes to hold Democrats at bay in November. And, yes, we hear the familiar cackle of certain public Black conservative commentators who believe the "new" Black political strategy is a mass defection to the GOP.

But, the real point is not that simplistic. Johnson argues for a much more independent, smarter and effective strategy that leverages party alliances rather than buying into them. Part of that strategy assumes that we're savvy enough to use both major parties for whatever purpose serves our best interests - not the other way around. On that point, we completely agree with Johnson.

In retrospect, Johnson had to have known he'd get this kind of reaction. If truly caught unaware by it, perhaps - being the public relations expert that he is - a preemptive and personal press release prior to Blackwell's announcement could have avoided some of the backlash. Instead, there's a hint of bad coordination, and Johnson writes as though he may be privately displeased with the Blackwell media machine. That all said, he comes off surprised or a bit flat-footed by the firestorm - we could be mistaken. Whereas we srongly disagree with the "sell-out" accusation, we can see how Johnson stands to gain from this sudden spurt of publicity. It definitely broadens his audience beyond the hip hop generation/progressive youth activist crowd and positions him as a leading voice in that new strategy taking shape.

Link: http://www.jeffsnation.com/blackwell/

Swann Within Ten

2006-08-18T15:42:00.000-04:00

A just released Strategic Vision poll shows GOP hopeful Lynn Swann closing the gap in his race for Governor of Pennsylvania (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=PA).

Previous polls, including one released yesterday, show Swann down by up to nearly 20 points. But the Strategic Vision survey only has him trailing incumbent Governor Ed Rendell by 10 points. A three point increase from a Strategic Vision's poll a month ago.

The bad news in the poll is that Governor Rendell tops 50% for the first time in a Strategic Vision poll for this race.

Other polls have Rendell topping 50% and nearing 60% in some cases.

Ford Hanging Tough

2006-08-17T13:41:00.000-04:00

Running campaigns for the United States Senate are not easy, especially when you are an African American running in the south, but Congressman Harold Ford (D-TN) seems to be holding his own in the contest with Republican nominee Bob Corker.

The most recent Rasmussen Reports Poll, http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=TN, shows that Ford trails Corker by six points in the race for the open Tennessee Senate seat being vacated by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Ford has trailed Corker by anywhere between three to six points in surveys taken this election year, but the gap has never widened.

Despite that consistency overtaking Corker will be tough. Corker is highly likeable and Ford is facing a high Reticence Level (the lack of support from the candidate's party) from Democrats. To win the Congressman from Memphis will have to run a sharp and mistake free campaign and increase his support from his party.

Candidate Implosion

2006-08-16T13:46:00.000-04:00

One bad story, depending on the severity, probably won't end a campaign. Two bad stories gets people talking and slows the campaign but you can weather it. Three bad stories brings the effort to a halt and four, well four is implosion.

Minnesota State Representative Keith Ellison (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MN), a candidate for the US House in Minnesota's fifth congressional district, finds himself in the implosion category.

Over the past few weeks and months the media has covered stories about:

1. The suspension of his driver's license for 38 unpaid parking tickets;
2. 17 moving violations since 1990;
3. The lack of tax payments to both the IRS and the state in five of eight years in the 1990's, totaling over $19,000 resulting in a lien being placed on his house and car; and
4. The late filing of Federal Campaign Finance forms.

While the taxes and tickets have been paid, the steady drip of bad media may cost Rep. Ellison in the four person primary election to be held on September 12th. Ellison shocked the political world by winning the DFL's convention in May and was consider the leading contender to replace retiring Congressman Martin Sabo.

An Even Dozen

2006-08-12T20:28:00.000-04:00

The qualifying period for candidates in Louisiana closed Friday at 5:00pm central time and embattled Congressman William Jefferson will face 12 opponents in the Louisiana primary on November 7th (click here for complete list of candidates (www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=LA). If no candidate receives 50% or more in November the top two candidates will enter a run-off on December 9.

Congressman Jefferson, who is under an FBI investigation for bribery, had his office raided by investigators in May and has seen two former aides plead guilty to various charges, was the first African American from Louisiana to be elected to Congress since Reconstruction.

Football Player, TV Announcer, Candidate and Now Author

2006-08-10T15:14:00.000-04:00

Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann announced yesterday that he is releasing a book that details his hopes and visions for the Keystone state. The book, entitled "A New Direction: My Plan for a Better Pennsylvania" will be given out at campaign stops and can be purchased for $10.00 from Swann's website (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=PA).

Releasing a book is not uncommon for candidates, although usually done by presidential candidates, but Mr. Swann may need the added attention and vehicle. The GOP nominee trails incumbent Governor Ed Rendell by double digits and a quarter of the citizens polled in a recent survey are neutral or unsure of how they feel about him (click here to view the poll http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=PA).

The race is still within reach but the Swann campaign needs something to jump start their effort, maybe "A New Direction" is the answer.

Here They Come Congressman

2006-08-10T14:01:00.000-04:00

The qualifying period for candidates to run for office in Louisiana began yesterday and the opponents to embattled Congressman William Jefferson began to sign up right away. The first to drop off his paper was state Senator Derrick Shepherd.

Senator Shepherd was followed by:

Regina Bartholomew -- Attorney with Orleans Parish School Board;
Troy Carter -- Former State Representative and City Councilman;
Karen Carter -- State Representative (expected to file on Friday) ;
Gregory "Rhumbline" Kahn -- Businessman; and
M.V. "Vinney" Mendoza -- Former Congressional Candidate

Those 6 candidates may not make up the final field as the qualifying period ends Friday at 5pm central time.

Congressman Jefferson, who is still under federal investigation for bribery, filed his papers on the first day of qualifying which was Wednesday.

In other congressional races Artis Cash, (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=LA) the Pastor and Founder of the Shreveport Christian Church, filed his papers to run in Louisiana's fourth congressional district against incumbent Republican Jim McCrery.

Blackpolicy.org will continue to list the candidates as they file during the qualifying period (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=LA ).

GA - McKinney's Loss A Signal of Change to Come ...

2006-08-09T09:27:00.000-04:00

Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) is now former Rep. as she gets severely beaten in last night's District 4 run-off against former Dekalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, Jr. Recent observations and Johnson camp worry over McKinney's ability to tap into a political mobilization machine at the eleventh hour seemed unfounded as turnout was relatively low last night.

Analysts predict this is the beginning of the political end for the outspoken McKinney, who trailed by 18 percentage points with 100% of precincts reporting. As we see in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

“It’s the end of her political career,” University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said. “I can’t think of anyone who’s come back from two primary defeats. It’s done some real damage to the notion that she’s got this loyal electorate that she can snap her fingers and mobilize.”

The defeat means McKinney will carry a double-loser label — she was beaten by fellow Democrat Denise Majette in 2002 — a fact that is likely to make it difficult for her to raise money for future races. Johnson, meanwhile, will be in prime position to consolidate his power and broaden his political base on what McKinney considered her home turf.

However, more than likely, McKinney will use this loss to portray herself as a political martyr taken out by a two-prong attack from Republicans seething over her vitriolic anti-Bush rhetoric and 9/11 theories and a rather active Jewish electorate angered over remarks from her father and her pro-Palestinian stands. There is an active segment within the Black political spectrum that will, predictably, paint her loss as part of a larger "design" to oust outspoken African American politicians. We agree with this assessment to some degree - African American activists/social justice advocates who opt to enter the political realm are in for rude awakenings once they find their original platforms silenced by compromises, legislative art and back room deals. The unfortunate side of that equation is that it further disenfranchises the truly disadvantaged.

Our prediction: the Johnson win in District 4 signals the continuing devolution of the "authenticity assumption." Black candidates and elected officials beware: taxpayers, especially those African American, realize that it takes money to go to the market. It will take much more than fiery sermons, disruptive protests and civil rights language to stir districts, specifically areas that are heavily Black. Overall, majority African American districts are still naturally attracted to candidates that look like them. But, as the educated and affluent Black middle and professional class continues to grow, voters are gravitating increasingly to candidates that are skilled in the business of governing. Voters want to know what you can do for them, not how well you say it.

Survey Says Butler Wont Get it Done Today

2006-08-08T14:44:00.000-04:00

In a SurveyUSA poll released on the eve of today's primary in Michigan, Rev. Keith Butler finds himself down by 23 points (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MI) to Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard in the Republican contest for the US Senate. The winner of the race will face incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow.

Butler, a former Detroit City Councilman, has trailed by at least 20 points in most polls since mid-June after trailing by only five points in May and June. Both Butler and Bouchard trail Senator Stabenow by double digits, but Bouchard seems to have a better chance at knocking off the first termer in the fall.

Johnson Tops 50% on Eve of Run-Off

2006-08-07T17:00:00.000-04:00

In a poll released less than 24 hours before the run-off for the Democratic nomination for the US House of Representatives in Georgia's fourth congressional district, upstart challenger Hank Johnson has a 13 point lead over embattled incumbent Cynthia McKinney http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php. The race is blackpolicy.org's "Key Black Race of the Moment."

While Ms. McKinney gained six points since the last poll, the Insider/Advantage Majority Poll released today has Former DeKalb County Commissioner Johnson (listen to his interview on Ascent Perspectives http://ascentperspectives.blogspot.com/) past the magical 50% mark. That is up only one point since their July 31 survey, but Mr. Johnson maintains the double digit lead that he has enjoyed since the beginning of the run-off campaign.

Commissioner Johnson forced the run-off by finishing second to Congresswoman McKinney in the July 18 primary election (click here for primary results http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=GA).

The winner takes on GOP nominee Catherine Davis in November.

Listen to Peter Groff and Charles Ellison's take on the McKinney/Johnson race on Ascent Chamber http://ascentchamber.blogspot.com/

Patrick Sees Lead Halved in Latest Poll

2006-08-04T22:10:00.000-04:00

The tight race for the Democratic nomination for Governor of Massachusetts has tightened even further according to the a recent Survey USA poll http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MA.

Former US Assistant Attorney General Deval Patrick still leads the three man race, but businessman Chris Gabrieli trails by only 5 points. A Survey USA poll taken in June had Patrick leading the venture capitalist by 13 points. However, a State House News Poll at the end of June had Gabrieli trailing Patrick by 1o points.

The new Survey USA poll interestingly had Patrick receiving more support from Hispanics than African Americans by a point, but showed 43% of African Americans supporting Gabrieli and Attorney General Tom Reilly. 43% is a number that must concern the Patrick team in race that promises to be very close.

The winner of the September 19 primary takes on presumptive Republican Lt. Governor Kerry Healey.

African American Dems Lose Primary But the Seat May Not Be Lost

2006-08-04T19:48:00.000-04:00

Just as we thought could happen 11 African American candidates split the vote in yesterdays Democratic primary in Tennessee's fourth congressional district.

The 11 candidates garnered 68% of the vote and captured nearly 52,000 votes, however, white State Senator Steve Cohen topped all candidates with 23,616 and 31% of the vote to become the Democrats choice to replace Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. who won the party's nomination to run for the United States Senate (for results click here http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=TN).

Ford will face Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker for the seat being vacated by Senator Bill Frist.

In Ford's former congressional seat, a district drawn specifically to elect an African American member of Congress and held by an African American for over 30 years, Cohen is set to take on GOP pick Mark White who won a four person race including Derrick Bennett.

But the fall race may not be set yet. Rumors persist that Ford's brother Jake is considering the race and will run as an independent. The website is set http://www.jakefordforcongress.com, though not populated with content, and numbers in the district are there, but the questions presented are interesting.

Will African American dems voted against their party nominee?
Will African Americans vote for the younger Ford out of habit of voting for a Ford and because he's African American?
If they do vote for Jake Ford, will they do so in impressive enough numbers that Mark White pulls a Cohen (and slips in as the winner because the Democrat vote is split)?
If Jake Ford runs what will be impact on his brother's race for the US Senate?
If brother does run does Congressman Ford support his party's nominee or his brother?
and if he supports his brother how does the party respond?

All these questions will be answered soon enough but they didn't even have to be asked if the African American community had coalesced around a candidate or two in the first place.

Swann Campaign Showing Life

2006-08-03T16:41:00.000-04:00

In the most recent Groff/Ellison Political Report, http://www.blackpolicy.org/groff_ellison_political_report.html we noted the near stagnant nature of Lynn Swann's campaign for Governor of Pennsylvania. Mr. Swann bolted from the gate in January, even running within the margin of error in a couple of polls, but seemed to have slowed to a crawl by late spring.

However, the latest Rasmussen Reports Poll (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=PA) shows some life in the Swann campaign. This poll has incumbent Governor Ed Rendell up only 10 points compared to the 13 point bulge he held just 3 weeks ago and the 24 point gap he opened up in June according to a Quinnipiac poll. The poll also shows the former Pittsburgh Steeler Wide Receiver with a favorable rating of 59%, but Governor Rendell tops that favored by 62%.

The bigger problem for the Swann effort may be the level of reticence he is receiving from the party. Only 67% of Republicans in the poll said they plan to vote for the Hall of Famer a Reticence Level of 33%, while Governor Rendell is drawing support from 73% of Democrats.

Feeding Frenzy in Tennessee

2006-08-03T10:46:00.000-04:00

Tonight when the polls close and Harold Ford, Jr. and Bob Corker (probably) begin to size each other up for their battle for the United States Senate, many eyes will be on Tennessee's ninth congressional district to see who will replace Rep. Ford in the United States House.

The black-majority district, which has had African American representation for over 30 years, sees 15 candidates (11 African Americans) seeking to replace Rep. Ford (click here for a list of the candidates http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php). Despite the 60% African American population in the Memphis area it appears the leading candidate is a white State Senator named Steve Cohen.

Senator Cohen has been in the Tennessee Senate for 24 years and has a liberal voting record and a deep relationship with the African American community. Cohen contested for this seat before, but lost to Ford, Jr., when Ford Sr. retired in 1996 losing by 26 points. However, this time in a crowded field and the African American candidates potentially splitting the vote, Cohen may slip through.

A recent poll commissioned by Nikki Tinker showed Cohen with an 11 point advantage over Tinker and Joe Ford, Jr. (the Congressman's cousin) and leading Julian Bolton by 20 points. But what is amazing about the poll, http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php, is that if you take the total of the 5 African American candidates ranking in the poll you come up with 48% to Cohen's 28%. The rest is for those who are undecided and for the other 9 candidates. If African Americans could have coalesced around one (or two or three...) candidates the chances of keeping African American representation in the ninth would have have been a near certainty, but now...

Steve Cohen, if successful tonight and in November, may end up being a fine Congressman with the best interest of the community in his mind, heart and vote (as his legislative record indicates), but when the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) is on the verge of historical power, 21 members are ranking members and set to assume chairpersonships if the Democrats take control in November, the CBC needs all the votes it can gather to make the historical power historically meaningful. Something the bevy of African American candidates in the ninth should have thought about.

The winner takes on the GOP nominee who will also be tapped tonight. The three man Republican primary includes Derrick Bennett.

Sabato's Crystal Ball - Republican Prospects in '06 Very Troubling ...

2006-08-03T10:33:00.000-04:00

Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for Politics, examines the possibility that Democrats may regain control of Congress in his latest analysis:

But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a "micro-wave" is heating up this summer. Historical trends and big picture indicators--generic congressional ballot tests and approval ratings of President Bush's job performance in particular - have always been heavily stacked against the GOP in this "sixth year itch" cycle, but aggregations of more race-specific indicators are now suggesting that Republicans are headed for their most serious midterm losses in decades.

As national discontent over gas prices, Iraq, and general instability in the Middle East percolate, approval ratings of Congress, the president, and the national direction continue to languish at torrid depths. But as the Crystal Ball has cautioned again and again, Democrats cannot truly capitalize on the withering political climate faced by the GOP unless they succeed in convincing large numbers of voters to evaluate their home-state Republican candidates through the powerful lens of national displeasure. In other words, the size of Democrats' gains will be contingent upon how well they play the game of guilt by (Bush) association as Republicans seek to escape the shadow of their unpopular chief executive.

Beyond playing "guilt-by-association," Democrats must also devise a better, more substantive platform. Voters aren't that stupid and electoral attitudes are local. There are signs a new Congress is in the works come November, but some of this speculation may be pure hype if Democrats are unable to manage better voter turnout and create resonating policy themes.

Not Dead Yet, McKinney Closes the Gap

2006-08-02T12:52:00.000-04:00

Reports of her political demise may have been premature. Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, after a fiery debate with run-off opponent Hank Johnson on Monday saw a bump in the most recent poll http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php.

In a InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll survey released yesterday McKinney found herself down to former DeKalb County Commissioner Johnson by 15 points with 17% undecided. That is change of 10 points for McKinney, who was down by 25 points in last weeks poll. The bad news for the Congresswoman is that Johnson stands at 49% and saw a small increase himself compared to the last poll(http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=GA).

The two face off Tuesday in a run-off for the nomination of the Democratic Party in Georgia's fourth Congressional district. The winner will face GOP choice Catherine Davis.

317

2006-08-02T12:10:00.000-04:00

In the closest race yet for an African American running for statewide office, Kansas state Senator David Haley captured the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State by a razor thin 317 votes (http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=KS) in yesterday's primary.

Senator Haley topped political science professor Robert Beattie to set up a rematch with current Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh who won the Republican primary by blasting Haley's state Senate colleague Kay O'Connor http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=KS by 43 points.

Secretary of State Thornburgh looks unbeatable, but Senator Haley is a smart, savvy, up and comer in Kansas politics who learned some lessons in his 2002 race with Thornburgh and will be riding the coattails of Kathleen Sebelius the state's popular Democratic Governor.

McKinney Going Down, Again?

2006-07-28T15:21:00.000-04:00

Congresswomen Cynthia McKinney, who regained this congressional seat just two years, finds herself in the race for political life, again.

In a poll by Insider Advantage DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, who finished a close second to the Congresswoman in the July 18 primary, leads Ms. McKinney by a whopping 25 points http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php. Run-off elections generally are very low turnout affairs so the lead is soft, but larger nonetheless.

The run-off, our Key Black Race of the Moment, will be contested on August 8th and the winner will take on Catherine Davis.

Splitting the Vote and Losing the Seat!?

2006-07-28T13:54:00.000-04:00

When Harold Ford, Jr. decided last year to run for the United States Senate everyone knew that the race to replace him would be a donnybrook. Open congressional seats are rare and rarer still in districts held by African Americans. So when 15 candidates, 11 of whom are African American, announced their intention to run it wasn't a shock.

What would be a shock is if one of the African American candidates didn't win the race. A poll done for Nikki Tinker by Brilliant Corner showed that that is a distinct possibilityhttp://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php.

The poll shows State Senator Steve Cohen leading Tinker and Joe Ford, Jr (Congressman Ford's nephew) by nine points and Julian Bolton by 20 points. If the poll is correct Tinker, Ford, Bolton, Ron Redwing and Ed Stanton are divvying up 48% of the potential vote.

Senator Cohen is clearly benefiting from the split among African Americans candidates and stands, according to the poll, as possibly the first white congressman from Tennessee's ninth congressional district in nearly 30 years.

The district encompasses the city of Memphis and is 60% African American. The primary is slated for Thursday August 3rd. The winner of the Democrat primary will take on the victor of the Republican contest which includes Derrick Bennett.

MI - Butler Slipping in Primary

2006-07-27T19:00:00.000-04:00

A new poll done in the Michigan Senate Republican primary shows Rev. Keith Butler slipping further behind sheriff Mike Bouchard http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MI in their hotly contested race.

While the deficit is only seven points the same Strategic Vision Poll had Butler down only five points last month so it seems the Butler machine is heading in the wrong direction with the primary only 12 days away.

But winning the primary may be a case of be careful what you hope for, since the same Strategic Vision survey has both Bouchard and Butler being beaten badly by the incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow. Sheriff Bouchard has the best numbers against Stabenow losing by 16 points, while Butler, the former Detroit Councilman comes up 20 points short.

The primary is August 8th.

The Good, The Bad, The...Most Recent Polls

2006-07-25T12:57:00.000-04:00

Another batch of polls have been released over the last few days and campaigns are poring over them to determine the life or death of their candidacy at this moment. The races that interest us are below:

Tennessee Senate -- Harold Ford, Jr. continues to hang tough but as the Republican primary approaches (August 3rd) it increasingly looks like Congressman Ford will face Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. Ford has consistently run behind Mayor Corker, but it's a manageable distance that can be made up http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=TN.

Ohio Governor -- While Congressman Ford is within striking distance in Tennessee, Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell is finding tough sledding in his gubernatorial bid. After an impressive primary win in May, Blackwell has yet to gain traction in the General Election race with Congressman Ted Strickland. Recent polls, http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=OH, show the former State Treasurer trailing by double digits with a damaging party "reticence level" of nearly 40%.

Pennsylvania Governor -- Former Pittsburgh Steeler great Lynn Swann is also facing GOP push back in his Governor's race in Pennsylvania. Recent surveys in Swann's race against incumbent Ed Rendell show the Hall of Fame receiver trailing by low double digits, http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=PA, but receiving only 58% of Republican support. A reticence level of 42%.

Stay Tuned For A Bigger and Better Blackpolicy.org and Black Races-- Coming Soon...

Another Poll Affirms Patrick's Lead

2006-07-12T13:46:00.000-04:00

Just a day after receiving good news about his surging campaign from a Rasmussen Reports Poll, Democrat candidate for Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick received more good news when the State House News Poll conducted by KRC/Communications Research show Patrick leading the primary election by 13 points and the general contest by eleven points http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MA.

Patrick, the former Assistant United States Attorney General for Civil Rights, has held the lead since late spring in most polls but now seems to be increase his lead. However, the most telling point in this survey and the Rasmussen one released recently show Patrick beating presumptive GOP nominee Lt. Governor Kerry Healey by a larger margin than Patrick's opponents.

The State House poll also shows a 14 point increase in support for Patrick and a 24 point decrease for Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas Reilly who was the favorite when the race began in earnest last fall.

The Democrat primary will be held September 19th.

Good News and Bad News

2006-07-11T15:56:00.000-04:00

A pair of polls recently released by Rasmussen Reports and Survey USA gave good news to one candidate running for governor and bad news to one campaigning for the United States Senate.

The good news was bestowed upon Deval Patrick who continues to run a competitive race for governor of Massachusetts. In a survey released by Rasmussen Reports on June 27th, http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MA, showed that Mr. Patrick lead a potential general election match up with current Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, the presumptive GOP nominee, by 20 points.

Beyond on that double digit lead the former Assistant US Attorney General for Civil Rights owned the biggest lead against Ms. Healey when she is matched up against Mr. Patrick primary opponents by a couple of points.

The Rasmussen Reports Poll also shows Deval Patrick with a higher favorable rating than any of other major candidates for governor with 54% saying they have a favorable view of him.

The primary in Massachusetts is slated for September 19th.

While Deval Patrick is riding high poll numbers, Keith Butler a republican candidate for the US Senate in Michigan continues to receive low numbers.

More bad news poured in yesterday as a Survey USA poll showed the former Detroit City Councilman trailing Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard by 26 percentage points http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MI.

Rev. Butler, the pastor of a mega-church in the Detroit area, must now be worried as the Michigan primary approaches on August 8th and his numbers seem to have stalled or decreased during the summer months. While Mr. Butler never crested 37% in any of the polls we've followed Sheriff Bouchard never topped 50%, until now.

With only 4 weeks until the primary the Butler campaign has a tremendous hill to climb if Rev. Butler is to be the first African American elected to the United States Senate from Michigan.

New Polls

2006-07-01T20:59:00.000-04:00

Pennsylvania Governor -- http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=PA,
Swann in a deep hole;

Massachusetts Governor -- http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MA,
Patrick continues to lead the way;

Maryland Lt. Governor -- http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MD,
Brown riding a hot candidate.

MS - Fleming Wins Now Faces Mississippi Icon

2006-06-28T11:53:00.000-04:00

Mississippi State Representative Erik Fleming won the Democratic nomination for the United States Senate in a stunning fashion last night. With 99.9% of the vote counted Rep. Fleming beat businessman Bill Bowlin with 65% of the vote ( http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php).

Rep. Fleming's win in the run-off election positions him to take on longtime Mississippi Senator Trent Lott in the November general election. Senator Lott will be bidding for his fourth term in the United States Senate and the former Majority Leader will have all the clout Washington incumbents receive including a massive war chest.

Mr. Fleming seems up to the challenge and said on a recent interview on Ascent Live! (listen to the interview http://blackpolicy.com/new_century_leadership_group/index.html) that "Mississippi is ready for a change" and that he will cover the entire state to make that change.

We shall see.

MD - Duncan Simms Ticket Out of the Race

2006-06-26T13:08:00.000-04:00

Up until Thursday there were two African Americans Democrats running for Lieutenant Governor of the commonwealth of Maryland. Delegate Anthony Brown is the runningmate of Baltimore Mayor and favorite Martin O'Malley and former Baltimore State's Attorney Stuart Simms was tapped by underdog Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan.

However, on Thursday County Executive Duncan dropped out of the race citing illness and ending his and Simms run for Governor and Lt. Governor.

Duncan who said he recently had been diagnosed with clinical depression said withdrawing from the race was best for him and his family.

The O'Malley Brown ticket, which had been leading in the polls http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MD, face nominally opposition in the September primary and can now grid for the tough general election ahead where they will face incumbent Bob Erhlich who has yet to name a runningmate.

Four years Gov. Erhlich shocked many and choose Michael Steele for the post and made Steele the first African American to win statewide in Maryland. Lt. Governor Steele is now a GOP candidate for the United States Senator from Maryland (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MD).

TN - Things Getting Ugly Early in Tennessee

2006-06-25T20:07:00.000-04:00

Most expected the open Senate race in Tennessee to be very competitive and extremely hard fought. So far that has been the case with tight poll numbers for the Republican primary and for the general election which will include Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=TN).

Rep. Ford seems ready for the difficulty of this senate campaign, and we suspect he is ready for the potential racism that greets any African American running for federal office especially in the south as Ford is looking to become the first African American US Senator from the south since Reconstruction.

While Ford was ready to deal with the issue of race, he has been saying the issues and problems in Washington, DC have not been caused by people who look like me, we doubt he was ready for attacks on his personal interests and taste.

The national GOP has posted a website called www.fancyford.com to poke fun at Ford who according to the websites' links likes to go to Starbucks, stay in nice hotels and eat in upscale restaurants which puts him out of touch with the average Tennessean, as if Tennessee doesn't have Starbucks, nice hotels and upscale restaurants.

The point of course is obvious that the young, single Memphis Congressman who likes to attend parties and attend fundraisers with Hollywood stars is out of step with Tennessee values, whatever they may be. The site also tries to paint Ford, a glaring moderate, as a liberal eager to emulate liberal icon Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy and also mentions how much he pays for his suits.

While it is not a surprise the website appeared it is somewhat surprising that it appeared so early. The Republican primary is a tough contest between two former members of Congress and the mayor of Chattanooga and Congressman Ford is bascially unopposed on the Democratic side allowing him to begin his general election campaign months before the August 3rd primay.

So maybe the GOP is beginning to panic a little as the primary gets tougher and Ford's poll numbers remain competitive (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=TN). Whatever the reason the Republicans felt it necessary to start the personal attacks in the spring before the November election and before the party has even selected a nominee.

If things are starting this early hold on tight, this is going to be a rough and tumble campaign.

PA - Swann Campaign Appears Stalled

2006-06-23T15:26:00.000-04:00

When Lynn Swann first announced his intentions to run for Governor of Pennsylvania there was a noted buzz across the country. A Hall of Fame performer in the National Football League for the Pittsburgh Steelers, a republican, a first time candidate without the weight of a record to defend he appeared a great candidate to take on what some saw as a vulnerable incumbent governor.

Mr. Swann enjoyed a quick start and even led in early polls over Governor Ed Rendell. However, it seems like the campaign has lost steam and the most recent Quinnipiac Poll shows Governor Rendell leading the the GOP nominee by 24 points and topping 50% in the survey (click here to see the poll results http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=PA).

What may be the most disturbing for the Swann campaign are the favorable/unfavorable numbers. While 44% of the people questioned had a favorable of impression of Gov. Rendell (compared to 22% unfavorable) Mr. Swann was seen favorably by only 23% of those polled.

On the upside of those numbers only 14% had an unfavorable impression of Mr. Swann and 50% of those asked had never heard of him. That 50% and low unfavorable rating may be the key to him making this a race and jump starting his stagnant campaign.

MI - Butler Trailing in GOP Primary

2006-06-21T15:36:00.000-04:00

Pastor and former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler has picked up support in his bid to become the United States Senator from Michigan, but still trails in his party's primary according to a Strategic Vision poll concluded on June 18 (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MI).

Rev. Butler finds himself behind Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard by 5 points, however, nearly a quarter of voters are undecided in the Republican primary to be held on August 8. The five point deficit is half of what he faced a month ago in another Strategic Vision survey.

If Rev. Butler is successful in his party's primary he faces a monumental task in knocking of Michigan incumbent Debbie Stabenow, whom he's trailed by an average of 21.6% over the last three months in a variety of polls.

MA- Patrick Opens Up Primary Lead

2006-06-21T15:06:00.000-04:00

In a race that few people seem to be discussing former Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Deval Patrick has opened up a 5 point lead in his primary campaign to be Massachusetts' Governor (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=MA) .

The Survey USA poll was done on June 19th and had state Attorney General Tom Reilly running second with businessman and former Lt. Gubernatorial candidate Chris Gabrieli coming in distant third.

Deval Patrick has built a razor thin lead over AG Reilly over the last three months in Survey USA polls and also holds a mid-sized lead over presumptive GOP candidate current Lt. Governor Kerry Healey. But first things first Mr. Patrick must win the democratic primary on August 8.

MI - Poll Shows Affirmative Action Ban Too Close to Call

2006-06-19T14:45:00.000-04:00

A ballot proposal facing fall voters in Michigan that would ban Affirmative Action in higher education admissions and government contracts is in a dead heat. A June 9 poll conducted by EPIC-MRA for Detroit News and WXYZ-TV showed that 43% of those surveyed favored the ban and 42% opposed the measure. 15% remain undecided with a margin of error of 4%.

The one point margin probably heartens opponents since similar polls over the last two years saw the measure with a commanding 40 point led and most pundits feel that ballot initiatives must have dominant leads going into the fall when support for any measure usually wanes.

This particular measure had a much larger lead and support (nearly 70% at times) until major public institutions began to come out against it in recent months. Religious groups, labor, businesses and civic organizations began to voice their opposition and speak about the importance of Affirmative Action.

Supporters of the measure, including the infamous California businessman Ward Connerly who has spearheaded efforts like this across the country, say the ban will ensure equal treatment for all.

With a tight battle for Governor and US Senate, and other measures like whether there should be an increase in funding for K-16 education and whether life begins at conception, turnout will be high which will surely impact the Affirmative Action question.

Source: Detroit News, June 14, 2006

TN-Ford Closes the Gap

2006-06-14T13:28:00.000-04:00

In his bid to become the first African American United States Senator from the deep south since Reconstruction, Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. must be buoyed by a poll released by Zogby International on June 12(http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1125) .

In match ups with each of the three Republican candidates Ford closed the gaps that were seen in a Rasmussen Reports poll done on May 1 ( http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=TN).

In the Zogby survey Ford is in a dead heat with one candidate and trailing the other two. But each the deficits is within the margin of error:

Ford 42%
Bob Corker 46%
Other 2%
Undecided 10%

Ford 41%
Van Hilleary 43%
Other 4%
Undecided 13%

Ford 42%
Ed Bryant 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 14%

Ford also enjoyed decent favorable/unfavorable numbers in the poll. 51% of those questioned had at least a somewhat favorable opinion of him compared to 31% with an unfavorable inclination.

The journey is certainly uphill, the GOP candidates don't top 19% in the unfavorable question and the state hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1990 with Al Gore, but the numbers give the moderate Democrat from Memphis hope.

Newark-Completion of the Mandate

2006-06-14T12:28:00.000-04:00

A little over a month ago one of our "Key Black Race(s) of the Moment" was the bitter election for Mayor of Newark, New Jersey.

Once vanquished challenger Cory Booker took on the two decade reign of "Mayor for Life" Sharpe James. While James declined to run for a sixth term and engage in a re-match with Booker, his surrogate and Deputy Mayor and State Senator Ronald Rice did make the race only to be smoked by Booker.

Mayor-Elect Booker won 70% of the vote on May 9 and three of his "Team Booker" City Council candidates also won.

Yesterday was the runoff for the remaining six spots on the Newark City Council. The Mayor-Elect campaigned hard for the last six seats, saying he needed a council to embrace the changes on which he campaigned.

The city responded to the call for change and gave all six of the "Team Booker" candidates victories. A result that means on July 1 when the Mayor-Elect and City Council are sworn into office the city will be seeing the biggest shift in political power in 36 years.

In 1970 Newark saw a similar transformation when Kenneth Gibson became the city's first African American Mayor.

Last nights results were also a landmark moment for Latinos in Newark as three Hispanics will now serve on the Council for the first time.

With the elections now over, it is time for "Team Booker" to make good on the promises of increasing economic opportunity, improving education, lowering crime and reconstructing the city's battered image. No small feat even for a Mayor with an overwhelming mandate and a handpicked Council.

OH-Blackwell Still Trailing

2006-06-13T14:57:00.000-04:00

Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee Kenneth Blackwell still trails Democrat standard-bearer Ted Strickland.

In a recent Survey USA poll Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell finds himself down by 16 points trailing Congressman Ted Strickland 53% to 37%. The spread is basically identical (with some slippage) to what Mr. Blackwell has been facing. Using a three month trend, based on recent Rasmussen Polls, the Secretary of State has seen himself down by 14 points on average (http://blackpolicy.com/black-races.php?s=OH).

The only poll that showed Mr. Blackwell within 10 points was a Ohio Poll/University of Cincinnati survey released on May 25th which had him nipping at the Congressman's heels by 6 points.

Pardon the Interruption...Senator Clinton Is Not Invincible...

2006-06-13T13:14:00.000-04:00

We have not engaged in the unbelievably premature talk about the 2008 presidential election (until now).

Our eyes have been firmly fixed on the critical mid-term elections that are less than five months away. The mid-term this year is as important and fascinating as we have seen in a decade. It could result in a sea change in American politics or further solidify (or hang on to) the majority the GOP began in the last critical mid-term election in 1994.

However, a recent Des Moines Register poll about who Dems would support in the (unjustified) first in the nation caucuses in January of '08 did caught our attention.

Former First Lady and current junior Senator from New York Hillary Clinton has been without question the front runner for the Democrat nomination. The darling of Clintonites (who would love to recapture the magic of President Clinton) and the mainstream media (who would love nothing more than a Clinton- John McCain or Rudy Giuliani or Condoleezza Rice race) , Senator Clinton has seemingly been anointed relegating other candidates to David like status to her Goliath.

But not so fast say Iowa Democrats giving a known name a stone. In a poll released recently by the Des Moines Register Senator Clinton places a surprising second to the last election's glamour candidate John Edwards.

Mr. Edwards, the Dems last Vice Presidential nominee, leads all candidates with 30%. Mrs. Clinton was second with 26% and the Democrats last standard-bearer and Edwards' running mate in 2004 John Kerry was a distant third with 12%.

Interesting numbers but plenty of time, plenty of time, plenty of time to see if they mean anything.

Now back to our current and more important programming...

Big Primary Night

2006-06-07T21:46:00.000-04:00

Last night saw an incumbent under the gun win easily, a relative unknown post a surprising first in a United States Senate race in the deep south and a blast from the past win again.

Yesterday had 14 African Americans involved in primaries across the country, http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php, the most yet on any given primary day.

In our "Key Black Race of the Moment" Mississippi State Representative Erik Fleming stunned political pundits and raced away from three other opponents to win the Democratic primary for the United States Senate by 20 percentage points over his nearest rival. Despite that commanding performance Rep. Fleming couldn't crest the magical 50% and will be in a run-off against businessman Bill Bowlin on June 27th.

Rep. Fleming rolled to the top in part because of the tremendous turnout for the well publicized and personal primary in Mississippi's second Congressional district.

In the second district incumbent Bennie Thompson faced what was suppose to be his toughest primary opponent in his 13 year career. Mississippi State Representative Chuck Espy gave the Congressman a solid fight, but in the end couldn't overcome the inherent advantage in fundraising members of Congress have and lost by a little over 26,000 votes.

In neighboring Alabama two term incumbent Artur Davis smashed political newcomer Eddison Walters in the Democratic primary in Alabama's seventh congressional district.

Congressman Davis garnered 93,266 votes and held Walters to under 10,000.

Lopsided victories where the order of the night for Davis' colleagues from California as well as Congresswomen Maxine Waters, Diane Watson and Juanita Millender-McDonald cruised to victory by an average of 69%.

As easy as primary day was for congressional incumbents two candidates for Governor came up woefully short.

In the Golden State Barbara Bencel failed in her effort to be the Democrat nominee to face Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in November. In the eight person field Ms. Bencel managed an anemic 2.7% of the vote.

As low as Barbara Bencel vote total was she nearly tripled the percentage of Iowa hopeful Sal Mohamad.

In the four way race to replace outgoing Iowa Governor and presumed presidential candidate Tom Vilsack, Mr. Mohamad had amassed only one percent of the vote with 97% of the precinct counted.

Finally, while our focus this election year has been on statewide and federal office candidates we have shown interest in municipal elections (the race for Mayor of New Orleans comes to mind) and Tuesday night was no different. In the city of Oakland last night former Congressional icon Ron Dellums barely avoided a run off and was elected Mayor of the City of Oakland.

With all precincts reporting the former Congressman captured 50% of vote (the exact percentage needed to avoid a run off) to best a field of six candidates including the president of City Council.

All results can be seen at http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php.

MS-Blood Feud

2006-06-06T17:14:00.000-04:00

While we tapped the Mississippi Democratic Senate primary as our "Key Race of the Moment" (http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php) with State Senator Erik Fleming facing off today against two opponents for the right to meet incumbent Senator Trent Lott, we could have easily selected the intense primary in Mississippi's second house district.

The red-hot primary between Congressman Bennie Thompson and State Representative Chuck Espy is certainly a race to keep an eye on ( http://blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MS).

The incumbent, age 58, was selected in a special election to replace Mike Espy (Chuck's uncle) when he was named by Bill Clinton as Agriculture Secretary in 1993. Thompson defeated Henry Espy (Chuck's father) in the 1993 election and has held the seat ever since. That incestuous background has given this primary a little extra kick.

Mississippi's second district is one of nation's poorest areas and is the only congressional district that is majority African American in the Magnolia state.

The 31 year old Espy (Chuck) was expected to give Thompson, the ranking Democrat on the Homeland Security committee, all he could handle but has lagged behind in fundraising making it that much more difficult to knock off the incumbent.

Thompson sights the importance of seniority in Congress (he will be Chairman of the Homeland Security if the Dems take control in November) and his experience in the process as reasons to be reelected. But he has been hammered by Espy as divisive and for giving up his spot on the House Agriculture committee. The Congressman fires back that during Espy legislative career he missed countless committee meetings and that his anti-abortion stance could impact Congressional direction in the on-going debate.

Another African American, Dorothy Benford a perennial candidate, is also in the primary and another one awaits in the general election. The winner will face GOP nominee Tchula Mayor Yvonne Brown in November.

BP predicts Thompson win

MA—“Politics of Hope” wins the first round

2006-06-05T16:04:00.000-04:00

On Saturday in Worcester, Massachusetts former Clinton appointed Devel Patrick took the first step in his journey to be Governor of the Bay State.

At the Democratic State Convention, Patrick won the top line and the party’s nomination by capturing 58% of the 4,569 delegates at the party’s soiree. However, both Attorney General Thomas Reilly and venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli also made the ballot setting up a red hot three primary scheduled for September 19th.

Mr. Patrick, the former United States Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights, spoke of a “politics of hope” (click here to go to the Patrick website and read the speech http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MA) to the cheering throng who gave him the days most enthusiastic response according to the Boston Globe (http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/06/04/democrats_give_patrick_resounding_nomination/).

The response from the party faithful wasn’t a great surprise since Mr. Patrick has led or been within a few percentage points of the lead in most polls the last couple of months and has the support of half the congressional delegation.

However, Mr. Reilly, who received 27%, boasts support from state’s legislators and Boston’s popular mayor Thomas Menino.

BP Prediction – Toss – Up

Black Caucus Wins Round with Congressional Campaign Committee

2006-05-24T13:43:00.000-04:00

Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has agreed to form a working group in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) to address issues raised by the Congressional Black Caucus about the leadership of DCCC head Rahm Emanuel (D-IL).

The Hill reports: www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/052406/news1.html.

Oops..Mayor Nagin Deserves All the Props

2006-05-21T00:57:00.000-04:00

Even we fell for the hype. Ray Nagin wasn't going to be able to secure a second term with the loss of a significant portion of the African American population of New Orleans after Katrina. Winning less than 10% of the white vote in the April election and seeing his run-off opponent Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu capture 24% of the African American vote the mountain seemed to steep to climb.

But tonight the Mayor shocked us all (www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php), winning a second term by a razor thin margin of 5,329 votes with all precincts reporting.

Mayor Nagin, according to AP reports, won the predominately African American precincts and the Lieutenant Governor won the majority white ones. However, it appears that African Americans rallied to the Mayor while he cut into Landrieu's white support by doing well in the white Uptown section of New Orleans.

Ray Nagin was able to do what everyone thought Mitch Landrieu would do and that was to assemble a new coalition of white and African American voters to lead the "new" New Orleans during its reconstruction phase.

That new phase will now be a seamless transition with the Mayor who lead them through the storm guiding the Crescent City into its new future.

A future many pundits didn't think Ray Nagin would see as mayor, but he deserves all the props.

New Orleans - Nagin v. Landrieu

2006-05-20T13:33:00.000-04:00

The most unusual of all elections ends tonight. The campaign for Mayor of New Orleans has been contested outside the city and outside the state of Louisiana. With over half of the population dispersed because of last year' s Hurricane Katrina, Mayor Ray Nagin and his run-off opponent Lt. Governor Mitch Landrieu have had to campaign across the country.

Satellite polling places were step up across the Pelican State, people were bussed in from Houston, Atlanta and various environs and fax machines were humming as 24,000 faxed and absentee ballots were sent. Only 20,000 were received in the April General election that was won my Mayor Nagin.

Mr. Nagin's, www.reelectmayornagin.com, victory last month was a surprise to many who expected the now majority white city to elect its first white mayor in three decades. But the mayor surprised them receiving 38% of the vote. However, that means 62% of the voters cast they ballots for someone else and over 90% of whites voted for someone other than him.
Today he will have to assemble a broad coalition to hold off challenger Mitch Landrieu, www.mitchformayor.com, who cobbled together an impressive alliance in April.

The Lt. Governor amassed support from all sections of the city including 24% of the African American vote. We think his support from African Americans will remain about the same or maybe decrease some as African Americans may rally around the Mayor, but that his overall take of white voters will increase and pave the way to victory.

That coalition will be critical to rebuilding a city that has been decimated not only structurally, but racially.

Prediction: Landrieu tops Nagin 53%-47%

Results can be found www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php

MN - Don't Sleep on Ellison ...

2006-05-17T20:55:00.000-04:00

... Because we did for a minute. Minnesota could elect its first African American to Congress in November as State Rep. Keith Maurice Ellison handily won an endorsement from the state Democratic Farmer Labor party. Ellison led a pack of candidates in the 5th Congressional District endorsement convention on May 6th as Dem candidates fell hard and, by the following week, most were publicly endorsing Ellison as the favored. For the numbers go to http://www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php?s=MN.

Still Ellison will face an uphill battle in the fundraising arena. In addition, retiring 5th Dist. Congressman Martin Sabo is still moving forward with an endorsement of longtime aide Mike Erlandson, who just looks desperate for a job at this point. If Ellison wins, this would also be the first time a Muslim is elected to the U.S. Congress. Anything is possible in Minnesota ...

Landrieu Receives Major Endorsement

2006-05-17T17:50:00.000-04:00

Louisiana Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu received the endorsement of the New Orleans Times-Picayune this morning (www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/news-3/1147848913197820.xml?nola) in his race for mayor against incumbent Ray Nagin.

Saying "[n]o single elected official can solve all the city's problems. But the recovery does depend on having a mayor who can bring people together and get things done..." New Orleans' major paper said the challenger was the candidate to do that and rebuild the great city.

Landrieu and Nagin are the lone candidates in this Saturday's mayoral run-off which is our "Key Black Race of the Moment." Check www.blackpolicy.org/black-races.php for results to this race.