Monday, February 27, 2006

PA - Rendell With 12 Point Lead Over Swann ...

This is what the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Finds:

Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell starts his 2006 reelection campaign with a 48 - 36 percent lead over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, the leading Republican challenger in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In this survey, conducted after Bill Scranton dropped out of race, Gov. Rendell leads Swann 74 - 15 percent among Democrats and 49 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Swann leads 64 - 22 percent among Republicans. Men back Rendell 52 - 35 percent, while women back him by a smaller 44 - 36 percent margin.

The Institute's Asst. Dir. is pretty blunt in his assessment:

"Republican leaders may have anointed Lynn Swann their candidate for governor, but Pennsylvania voters are slow to jump on the Swann bandwagon. Despite all the Swann hoopla in the past month, he has failed to seriously narrow Gov. Rendell's double-digit lead," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

Cook Report - Feb. '06 Gubernatorial Race Ratings ...

Check out The Cook Report Gubernatorial Race Ratings in the following states we've been watching:

- PA leans Dem
- OH leans Dem (which supports the 2006 predictions)
- MD is a toss up
- MA is a toss up (looking good for Patrick every day)

Cook Report - Feb. '06 Senate Race Ratings ...

The Cook Political Report rates the following Senate races:

- TN is a toss-up
- MI leans Dem
- MD leans Dem

MI - Keith Butler 19 Points Behind Stabenow in Poll

In a potential matchup between current U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and ex-Detroit City Councilman & evangelist Keith Butler (R), Stabenow leads Butler 53% to 32%. Butler is viewed favorably by 23% of the electorate.

PA - Quarter of Voters Undecided in Gubernatorial Race ...

This is what Rasmussen Reports on a likely Rendell (D) vs. Swann (R) matchup in the Pennsylvania Governor's race:

With the field reduced to two players, the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Democratic Governor Ed Rendell narrowly leading Republican Lynn Swann, the former Pittsburgh Steeler, 46% to 43%. In January Swann enjoyed a two-point lead.

Both Rendell and Swann attract support from a little more than two thirds of fellow party members. Rendell continues to do better with unaffiliated voters and moderates.

But Swann is better liked. He is viewed favorably by 59% of the state's likely voters and unfavorably by only 18%, with 22% not sure. Governor Rendell is viewed favorably by 50%, unfavorably by 39%.

CQ's Take on Key Black Political Races

Allright: so when you look at Congressional Quarterly's 2006 Prediction map, you get a feeling there's not much hope for most of the more critical statewide Senate & Gubernatorial races involving African American candidates:

According to the CQ Predictions:

- Maryland leans Democrat. Therefore, that's minus 1 Black Senator next year. Due to Steele's inability to balance his lip and shake White conservatives controlling his platform, we're beginning to think CQ is right;
- Tennessee, we were surprised to find, is seen as leaning Republican. We really feel this is Ford's race to lose.
- Michigan leans Democrat. This doesn't surprise us since Michigan has much more important stuff to worry about than Keith Butler's mission to "Reviv[e] the American Spirit."

- Massachussets is seen as safe Democrat, which may bode very well for political newcomer Deval Patrick. We admit failing to pay serious attention to this race until recently, when Patrick's primary opponent began to slip miserably.
- Ohio shows as "no clear favorite," which may surprise some conventional political thinkers who suppose Kenneth Blackwell will win
- Pennsylvania leans Democrat. This will be a tight one, though, particularly since the incumbent, Gov. Rendell, doesn't resonate with voters in the Western side of the state like he does in the East. Swann, however, is looking like Steele in Maryland: unable to loosen the grip of White conservatives in the state.

MD - Steele's Support Dwindling ...

Polling data suggests Democratic front-runner Congressmen Ben Cardin (D) has gained a serious edge over GOP front-runner Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) in the race for the open Maryland U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D). This may be due to recent verbal gaffs on stem cell research by Steele. This has also caused a closing of the gap between Steele and former Congressman & NAACP President Kweisi Mfume (D) in a potential match-up between those two high profile African Americans. According to the crosstabs). Steele is essentially tied when matched against former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume--42% for Steele, 41% for Mfume."

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Welcome to the Black Polls ...

The name of this blog pretty much speaks for itself. We'll be providing you with as many daily and updated accounts of polling data on major state and federal races involving African American candidates in the 2006 election year.

There are quite a few this year - a strong sign of Black political development and maturity. So, if you think we missed someone, feel free to drop us a line at